EAEU dispute will end in a rhetorical storm: Sergey Stankevich

Sergey Stankevich, a political scientist, commented to Alpha News on the consequences of Armenia’s possible withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as the reaction of Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister, to the report on Armenia’s trade and economic relations with the union’s member states.

According to the political scientist, current prices in Armenia are largely determined by trade with EAEU countries and the economic advantages of membership in the union. Stankevich believes that leaving the EAEU would mean losing these advantages and switching to market prices.

“Armenia, thank God, is not leaving the EAEU. And I think Armenian citizens and voters simply would not forgive Nikol Pashinyan for such a withdrawal now. The report he took such sharp offense at merely states the following: it notes the fact that current prices in Armenia, which are based on trade turnover with EAEU countries, are effectively subsidized, meaning they are privileged prices. And if Armenia leaves the club, it loses the privileges of club membership, and prices simply become market prices. No one is going to announce any sanctions against Armenia or impose Trump-style tariffs of, say, 500% on sales to Armenia and purchases from Armenia. There is nothing of the kind, no blackmail with any restrictive measures. It’s just that while you’re in the club, you enjoy the club’s privileges. If you leave, you lose the privileges. That’s all. That is all the report was a reminder of. With figures and facts,” Stankevich said.

In his view, the current debate will not lead to the country’s withdrawal from the EAEU, and Russia and Armenia will remain within the framework of their existing relations.

“The fact that Pashinyan interpreted simple arithmetic as destabilization for Armenia shows that he is, on the whole, seriously short of arguments, because if arithmetic is destabilization, then where do we go from here? I think it will all end in yet another rhetorical storm, and everyone will stay where they are: Russia and the EAEU will stay where they are, Armenia will remain inside the union, and Pashinyan will, for now, continue to head the Armenian government. And he will still be looking for a way out of the serious geopolitical dead end into which he himself is, for now, driving himself,” Stankevich concluded.