For Putin, Karabakh is a small leverage in relations with Baku and Ankara – Vigen Hakobyan

 
Political strategist and analyst Vigen Hakobyan, speaking with Alpha News, commented on the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Azerbaijan, its goals and results.

“There may be several reasons for Putin’s visit to Baku. This may be due to the fact that Putin understands that both the Kursk operation and certain Israeli provocations against Iran can further escalate the situation in the region, which is not very beneficial to Russia and its allies, in this case, Iran. This region is no less important for Russia and its allies in terms of its consequences than the military scene of the Ukrainian conflict itself. Before Putin’s visit to Baku, Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu first went to Tehran and then to Baku.

Iran, concerned about the prospect of an escalation of the situation, is trying to insure itself against ‘surprises’ or undesirable actions from its neighbors. In this case, we are talking about Azerbaijan. I think Iran has asked Russia to guarantee that Azerbaijan will at least maintain its neutral status in the event of a possible conflict, since Iran is not satisfied with the assurances of the Azerbaijani leadership. The second reason for Putin’s visit to Baku may be that he is trying to become an alternative to Turkey; that is, he is trying to reduce Turkey’s influence because in the region it is felt that Turkey leans towards the West.

As for the context of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, there may have been talks about the ‘corridor’. I don’t think Russia is particularly interested in whether it will be called a ‘corridor’ or a road, it is interested in having it under its own control, and if it does not, then the West, including Turkey, should not control it either.

In addition, energy logistics is a strategically common interest for Russia and Azerbaijan. Perhaps new agreements have been reached in this regard.

The most important thing in Russian-Azerbaijani relations is the issue of the North-South Road, and I think the agreements could have been updated,” Vigen Hakobyan told Alpha News.
 
The analyst highlights Vladimir Putin’s statement on Karabakh from the meeting of the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan held a few days ago.

According to RIA Novosti, during talks with Aliyev, Putin said that “Moscow would have been glad if it could have done something to sign a peace agreement on Karabakh.”

“Aliyev was not really happy about the statement on Karabakh because, from his point of view, the Karabakh issue is considered closed. Putin’s mention of Karabakh indicates that Karabakh remains in the hands of the Russians as a small but still certain leverage in relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey,” Vigen Hakobyan said.

The Russian President, who was on a state visit to Baku from August 18–19, told Aliyev that Moscow is ready to participate in the normalization of relations between the two countries in the part that will be in demand by both countries. Aliyev did not respond to this statement. Later, in an interview with Russian Izvestia, Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said that Baku welcomes the Russian platform, while Yerevan, according to Bayramov, has recently expressed disagreement with negotiating on this platform.

Vigen Hakobyan believes that Moscow, in an attempt to restore the trilateral platform, is also trying to restore its influence in the South Caucasus, thereby limiting Turkey’s influence in this region.

“The processes taking place today in the international arena in connection with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the processes that are taking place behind the scenes allow Russia to balance its positions in the South Caucasus. Pay attention to the fact that Vladimir Putin did not travel from Baku to Moscow at this fateful moment for Russia but went to three North Caucasian republics of Russia.

I believe that quite serious preparatory work is underway in the entire region, including in the Caucasian republics located on the territory of Russia, in order to be ready for all scenarios in case of possible escalation or certain developments,” Vigen Hakobyan said.

Referring to the statement by the Russian Foreign Minister accusing Yerevan of “sabotaging” the agreements on communications passing through Syunik, Vigen Hakobyan said:

“Moscow clearly says that it has been given a promise both on paper and verbally, Lavrov always reminds us of gentlemen’s agreements. I think that Russia will be quite consistent in its demands and will use all mechanisms, including propaganda and political mechanisms. After all, Lukashenko’s statements are not purely his own—they are his in style, but the content is fully coordinated with official Moscow. Armenia’s position is conditioned by its obligations before the West, because Armenia does not play a serious role here, Armenia should just sign. In fact, the main fight is between the West, North, and East over who should control this road. No one doubts that this road will have one status or another, the problem is who will control it and at what cost, whether it will be a negotiating mechanism or, for example, a military one,” he said.