Konstantin Kalachev: Baku is now not ready to start a serious escalation

 
Speaking with Alpha News, Russian political strategist Konstantin Kalachev commented on the possible escalation of the war.

“The other day, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) stated that it considers its area of responsibility in Armenia to be its sovereign territory within the framework of settled state borders. The CSTO responded that it is responsible for that part of the Armenian border that has been settled.

Considering that the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not settled, the organization’s area of responsibility does not begin and does not end anywhere. Accordingly, I can assume that Baku, understanding perfectly well that neither Russia nor the CSTO—and Russia stands behind the CSTO—will interfere, is trying to push through its interests. So, Baku acts absolutely consistently, understanding that in this situation, Armenia has to rely only on itself,” Kalachev said.

According to the expert, Baku is by no means ready to start a serious escalation, much less a new war.

“But for all that, I believe that Baku is by no means ready to start a serious escalation, much less a new war. Aliyev, who won the election, suggesting that he now needs to organize relations with all the key geopolitical players, definitely does not need a war. What does he need it for? What to distract from? What to shift attention to? For what? What are the benefits? Who needs this? However, the pressure will continue. So, if we talk about escalation, we need to understand what is meant by this word. If escalation means a new war, then no, there will be no war. If escalation is a continuation of Baku’s pressure, then yes, Baku will continue to press, because now time is on Baku’s side,” Kalachev noted.

According to the political scientist, the West now has no time for the South Caucasus either.

“You need to understand that the story with the special military operation is dragging on, and the West now has no time for the South Caucasus either. The West is ready to communicate and demonstrate in every possible way that Armenia has an alternative, rapprochement with the West, but we understand well that in a situation where there is a problem with the Gaza Strip and there is a problem with Ukraine, Armenia is definitely not the focus,” Kalachev concluded.