No reconciliation has occurred between Moscow and Baku: Vasily Koltashov

Political scientist Vasily Koltashov commented to Alpha News on the new scandal in relations between Azerbaijan and Russia. The occasion was accusations brought by Baku against two Russian political scientists, including Semyon Uralov, as well as the deportation from Russia of the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora, Bakhtiyar Hasanov.

According to the expert, what is happening indicates that the conflict between Moscow and Baku has not ended, despite numerous diplomatic contacts and public statements from both sides.

“A new scandal is flaring up in relations between Azerbaijan and Russia. Azerbaijan is accusing two Russian political scientists of terrorism and incitement of hatred, one of them being Semyon Uralov. Russia, for its part, expelled and deported from the country the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora, Bakhtiyar Hasanov, which is, in essence, a signal: no reconciliation has occurred. No matter how many handshakes, no matter how many diplomatic bows there have been, this reconciliation has not happened. Azerbaijan views Russia as a country that must be fought against in one form or another. Russia understands that there remains, at the very least, a threat from part of the Azerbaijani diaspora’s representatives, and that threat must be neutralized. So that Baku understands whom it should value, and with whom it needs to restore relations,” Koltashov noted.

The expert believes that further deterioration of relations could have serious consequences, above all for Azerbaijan itself.

“Meanwhile, the price of maximizing the conflict is the fate of Azerbaijan itself. The Americans are pushing Azerbaijan toward escalating relations with Moscow. Azerbaijan has taken quite a few symbolic steps that seem to it to be perfectly normal behavior of one great power toward another great power. Baku considers itself among the great powers, but does not understand that it is a regional country, yes, with a strong and largely independent administration, with incomplete dependence on the West and certain political contracts with it. But, at the same time, they do not realize how dangerous this game with Moscow is, a game of mutual slaps, mutual reproaches, and mutual accusations,” the political scientist said.

According to Koltashov, the development of the transport route through the Caspian and Iran toward India is becoming especially important for Russia, while Azerbaijan risks losing its significance in this process.

“For Moscow, the route through the Caspian and, more broadly, ties with Iran, and through Iran with India, are acquiring enormous value. Trade turnover between Russia and India will grow in the coming decades and will grow many times over. This trajectory is already visible now. Both sides are extremely interested in the movement of goods, and that means benefits for Iran as well. Azerbaijan has, in effect, given up on these benefits. It seemed to think it could play the role of key transit country for the North-South corridor, but Moscow does not trust Baku, and Azerbaijan has ended up in a difficult relationship with Russia,” the expert stressed.

Koltashov also said that Russia is not interested in a conflict with Azerbaijan and has demonstrated its readiness for cooperation for many years.

“For now, the slapping game continues, which, from Moscow’s point of view, is meant to bring Baku to its senses. Moscow absolutely does not want any conflict with Baku. Moreover, Moscow has demonstrated for many years that it is open to compromise and rapprochement. But Azerbaijan’s leaders, intoxicated by British agents of influence, took this for a kind of weakness, weakness of the Russian president personally, weakness of Russian diplomacy, and weakness of the Russian state, failing to correctly understand the signals being sent to them. That is why we are now observing the current escalation as a result,” Koltashov concluded.