Nothing is over in Gyumri yet

Armenian politics continues to “delight” and surprise. It was not enough to hand power to “street activists” in 2018, nor to take every measure to prevent the failure of protests between 2020 and 2023. It was not enough to cast doubt on the opposition candidate’s victory in the Gyumri mayoral elections. Now, doubts are being sown about the events of April 16, when the newly formed Gyumri City Council is set to elect Vardan Ghukasyan as mayor. Let’s delve into the possible scenarios in Gyumri and why opposition political leaders and forces must remain vigilant if they wish to uphold the people’s victory.

A new mayor is scheduled to be elected on April 16. At least two candidates are confirmed: Vardan Ghukasyan (from the Communist Party of Armenia) and Sarik Minasyan (from the Civil Contract party). Despite lacking the necessary mandates to independently elect its candidate, the Civil Contract party has still nominated Minasyan. If no unforeseen events occur, the former mayor of Gyumri, Vardan Ghukasyan, is expected to secure the position, as opposition forces that cleared the electoral threshold have declared their support for his candidacy.

If no one gets 17 votes, a second round of voting will take place. To recap, the Civil Contract party holds 14 mandates, the Communist Party has 8, the Our City bloc by Martun Grigoryan has 6, My Powerful Community led by Ruben Mkhitaryan has 3, and Mother Armenia led by Karen Simonyan has 2 mandates. If no candidate gets 17 votes, the two candidates with the most votes will advance to the second round, where the mayor will be elected by a simple majority.

While the outcome seems predictable—albeit with some friction—the opposition has announced its support for Ghukasyan’s candidacy. However, the leader of the United Armenia party, Yervand Tarverdyan, stated that the Civil Contract Party should not nominate a candidate for mayor. It is necessary to ensure that there are different opposition candidates at the meeting of the City Council, and perhaps Martun Grigoryan will be elected mayor. In other words, Tarverdyan offered Pashinyan’s party a deal.

Needless to say, if this happens, it would be political suicide not only for Martun Grigoryan but also for the bloc that nominated him for mayor (Tarverdyan and Artur Vanetsyan nominated Grigoryan), as well as for the parliamentary faction represented by Grigoryan (the faction consists of representatives of the Homeland Party and the Republican Party of Armenia). It would empirically reveal who is aiding Pashinyan in retaining power.

Although Tarverdyan’s idea has already been rejected by both the Homeland Party and Martun Grigoryan himself, it would not be surprising if Gyumri residents decide to monitor the voting process live near the city hall on April 16. They may gather and watch the voting process on the big screen. If everything comes to its logical conclusion, and Ghukasyan is elected mayor, it would be symbolic for him to address the people after the election. If not, the politicians who stole the votes of the Gyumri people will need to explain what happened at the time of the vote.

Think about it…