Is Russia waiting for Armenians to return to Artsakh?

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov continues to slam the foreign policy agenda and plans of the Armenian authorities. First, during a press conference on the results of 2023, Lavrov unequivocally named the person who surrendered Artsakh to Azerbaijan, indicating the place and time—Nikol Pashinyan, Prague, October 6, 2022.

Now the time has come to nullify the plans of the Armenian authorities aimed at expelling the Russian military from our region. The day before, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking about the Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh, stressed that this matter no longer concerns the Armenian side.

“We still do have peacekeepers there [in Karabakh], even after everyone recognized it as Azerbaijani territory. But this matter no longer concerns the Armenian side; this is an issue of Russian-Azerbaijani bilateral relations,” Lavrov said.

To put it differently, Lavrov stated that:

1. Russia is not going to withdraw its peacekeepers from Artsakh;
2. Russia’s foreign policy agenda includes the return of Armenians to Artsakh — if there is a Russian peacekeeping mission.

If the Armenian authorities do not take advantage of this chance and do not ensure the return of at least some of the forcibly displaced Armenians to Artsakh, the leadership and the people of Artsakh should clearly convey the political message that it is Nikol Pashinyan who does not want the Armenians to return to their historical homeland. It is Nikol Pashinyan who is doing everything to ensure that the Armenian Artsakh repeats the fate of the Armenian Nakhichevan, that is, having been left without an Armenian population and losing its Armenian identity.

Now back to Lavrov’s latest press conference. Commenting on the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, he recalled the example of Moldova and Transnistria, when Chișinău and Tiraspol were close to concluding a historical document mediated by Russia, but the West’s direct intervention stopped this process since the interests of the collective West, and especially the EU, have not been reflected in this agreement.

Lavrov gave this example not just for effect. He demonstrated not only that Russia understands the intentions of the West regarding Armenian-Azerbaijani relations but also that it can do the same—that is, to ensure that a process that does not take into account the interests of Moscow would not be brought to an end. The complete oblivion of the “page of the Armenian Artsakh” and the withdrawal of peacekeepers do not correspond to Russia’s interests, and Russia is doing everything to resolve this issue in its favor. This is the real geopolitics.
And if the Armenian authorities do not understand that, that’s on them.

It is also important that we hear statements from Iran that are identical to those from Russia. The final oblivion of Artsakh does not stem from the interests of Tehran. Let’s see how Pashinyan and his Western partners and friends will resolve these issues, because they were so happy after the displacement of Armenians from Artsakh that they even talked about through which territory (Armenia or Azerbaijan) the Russian peacekeepers should leave the region….

Speaking of the region, do you remember how Pashinyan argued that, waking up one day, we may see that Russia has left the South Caucasus? At the end of 2023, Russia signed an agreement on the establishment of a permanent naval base on the Black Sea coast of Abkhazia. Just for the record, Abkhazia is also in the South Caucasus. In other words, Russia not only does not leave the South Caucasus but also does everything possible to increase its presence and strengthen its political, economic, and military influence.

Think about it.