Now it is Stratfor’s turn to warn about a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan

While the pro-government propaganda over the past weekend was telling the public that “the airspace is closed”—which was very Arayik Harutyunyan-like—because we did buy air defense systems from France, another voice came from the West, assessing the likelihood of Azerbaijan invading Armenia.

The American private strategic intelligence company Stratfor, or as it is also called, “the shadow CIA”, commented in detail on the likelihood of Azerbaijan’s invasion of Armenia.

According to Stratfor analysts, Baku will prioritize putting into operation the Zangezur Transit Corridor in the coming weeks and months, and since the world is distracted by other crises and Armenia is in a relatively weak position, Baku may consider that now is the right time to start invading and seizing the corridor by force.

According to “the shadow CIA”, another full-scale war with Armenia is likely to be much more deadly and unpredictable than the previous war in 2020.

Over the past 2-3 weeks, this is the second reputable American actor (after Politico) that openly talks about a potential invasion of Azerbaijan into Armenia—even if the scale of the invasion differs according to two sources—in order to “break through the Zangezur corridor”.

And if Politico can still be called an actor not specializing in regional security issues, then Stratfor is already a much more serious level.
Just one example will be enough to understand what we are talking about. In November 2018, a few months after the change of power in Armenia, an analysis concerning our region was published on the pages of Stratfor, in which, among other things, it was noted that “the United States will do everything to drive a wedge between Moscow and Yerevan.”
“Georgia is considered the main strategic partner of the United States in the region. As for Azerbaijan, Washington will try to aggravate relations with neighboring Iran as much as possible. Baku is still cautious, but when it feels that the Iranian regime has weakened enough, it will openly join the American game.

As for Yerevan, Washington will closely monitor the possible deepening of contradictions between Pashinyan’s administration and the Kremlin and will try to contribute to the deepening of these contradictions since, according to the agency, Yerevan remains Moscow’s only support in the region, and the collapse of these ties is extremely important for Washington,” Stratfor analysts wrote in 2018.

As you can see, after 5 years, everything in the region is developing exactly in the way that American experts analyzed in November 2018.
It is also noteworthy that the new analysis from “the shadow CIA” came out just before the meeting in the “3+3” format in Tehran. Once again, we have to state that the analysis from Stratfor, the article in Politico, and the open letter to Pashinyan from Mikhail Saakashvili are quite obvious, though subtle, diplomatic blackmail. Pashinyan is warned about the consequences of signing a “peace treaty” with Azerbaijan in Moscow.

The Armenian authorities have managed to drag the country into a geopolitical clash of world and regional players, with all that this entails.