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Tensions on the border and constitutional amendments: What is Armenia being prepared for?

February 14 2024, 18:32


Only a few days after Ilham Aliyev and a number of Armenian officials declared that “peace is on the border and it remains only to consolidate this peace on paper,” the Armenian Defense Ministry reported that as a result of shelling by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in the direction of Nerkin Hand, the Armenian side has suffered casualties.

What happened was not an accident but a pattern. Recall that before the 2020 war, Nikol Pashinyan also boasted that, for the first time in decades, there had been no clashes on the line of contact between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijani troops for months. Only later did it become clear that the Azerbaijani side used the “break” for engineering work, which gave its result during the 44-day war. History repeats itself, making us believe that Armenia is also being prepared for surrender.

But to bring Armenia to surrender, it is not enough to periodically fire at its positions. It is obvious that the process must be much deeper, and first of all, Armenia in the geopolitical sense must remain alone—must become a geopolitical orphan without allies and with low resistance.

What does a “geopolitical orphan” mean? Armenia should become a non-aligned country, which means that official Yerevan should terminate its membership in the CSTO, which will lead to a revision of the provisions of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia (1997). This, in turn, may raise the question of the withdrawal of both the Russian border troops and the 102nd military bases from Armenia.

Where can this process begin? The process can and will begin with constitutional changes, and this has already been indirectly confirmed by Nikol Pashinyan.

On Wednesday, February 7, responding to opposition accusations in the National Assembly that the process of adopting a new constitution is connected with talks with official Baku, Pashinyan publicly announced the agreed paragraph of the peace treaty with Azerbaijan. “There is an agreed article in the text of the peace treaty that states that the parties cannot refer to their legislation to avoid non-fulfillment of any obligations under this agreement,” Pashinyan said.

But why is the Constitution being changed, and what does Armenia’s preparation for surrender have to do with it?

The answer to this question was given a few months ago by the head of the Armenian Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, who stated that Armenia is considering the possibility of choosing the status of a non-aligned state. Constitutional amendments are necessary to consolidate the country’s non-aligned status.

At the expected constitutional referendum, Pashinyan will actually involve the masses in the process of legitimizing his policy and shift political responsibility from himself to the people. as he did during the snap election to the National Assembly in 2021. After that, Pashinyan can initiate the process of “giving Armenia non-aligned status,” the stages of which we have already written above.

As a result, Armenia, left without the CSTO, military and political assistance from Russia, and a Russian military presence on the territory of its country, will become easy prey for Azerbaijan and Turkey. It is very important for Aliyev and Erdogan to be sure that help will not come from anywhere, and securing non-aligned status for Armenia is exactly the guarantee that official Baku and Ankara need—a political trick that will mislead the people of Armenia.

That’s why the Constitution is being changed and the topic of Armenia’s non-aligned status has been introduced into public discourse. The “security umbrella”, which for many years ensured the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Armenia, is actually being destroyed.

This means that “political orphanhood” will result in the de-armenization of the current territory of the Republic of Armenia.
Armenia is not being prepared for a peace treaty with Baku. Armenia is not being prepared for a war with Azerbaijan. Armenia is being prepared for capitulation, after which Pashinyan will give the people of Armenia the following choice: life or state.

As for the current aggravation of the situation on the border (about which the American Stratfor wrote earlier this year, openly stating that a new round of escalation will begin after the presidential election in Azerbaijan), this is a reason for Pashinyan to intensify the process of adopting a new constitution and the collapse of Armenia’s current security system.

Think about it…