Russian market cannot be replaced by European one – Armenia will suffer losses: Vadim Trukhachev

Vadim Trukhachev, political analyst, commented to Alpha News on statements by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan about preserving trade ties with Russia while reorienting Armenian exports toward the European market.

According to the expert, Pashinyan likely made these statements to reassure the local population affected by the restrictions imposed by Russia.

“Whatever he says, quickly reorienting exports toward the countries of the European Union is fairly difficult, and in the short term Armenia and its agricultural producers will, of course, suffer losses. Armenia will not be able to fully replace the Russian market with the European one. Europe has its own wine, and considerably more of it than Armenia does. It has its own mineral water, its own flowers. The Netherlands is the world’s largest producer of flowers, and Rotterdam is home to the European Union’s largest flower exchange. Even if the EU announces that it is ready to accept Armenian goods, that doesn’t mean it can do so right away. All markets and supply chains are already planned out for the current year. At most, some changes might be possible next year,” Trukhachev said.

According to the political analyst, Pashinyan’s actions are more of a tactical decision, while Armenia’s strategic course toward rapprochement with the European Union remains unchanged.

“Since the European Union sets a firm condition, that Armenia must sever relations with Russia, Armenia will fulfill this condition. It may act roughly the way neighboring Georgia has, where the authorities have no intention of directly fighting Russia, but also have no intention of maintaining close relations with it. Strategically, this changes nothing: Armenia is moving away from Russia,” Trukhachev concluded.