Vladimir Kireev: abandoning the CSTO is like being left unarmed in the forest, alone and facing wolves

Vladimir Kireev, political analyst, head of the analytical department at the International Eurasian Movement, commented on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement about withdrawing from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

Pashinyan’s statement that he would be satisfied if the organization itself excluded him from the list of participants, because this would make his own choice regarding Armenia’s continued participation in the organization’s activities easier, is related to the fact that Armenian society is divided, and there is no unified position on whether Armenia should continue to participate in the organization’s activities or leave it. There is such a division, and there will be some further debate and struggle. This wastes time and requires effort. As for Pashinyan, I think he has made up his mind that there’s no point for him in participating in the CSTO’s activities. However, it would probably be easier for him to avoid having to go through that complicated procedure of persuading his opponents. Perhaps he even has some inner doubts, because, in fact, Armenia’s situation is quite complicated, it’s surrounded by not‑entirely‑friendly countries, and critically dangerous processes are unfolding near its borders. There is no clear position on how to ensure Armenia’s security, especially since there is a split in Armenian society. Therefore, if the CSTO itself were to decide to exclude Armenia from the organization, this would, in any case, make it easier, from its perspective, to make its own choice and would make life politically easier for Armenia in the coming months, and perhaps even years,” the expert believes.

According to Vladimir Kireev, for Armenia, which is located in a complex region, withdrawing from the union treaty would be fraught with wars and economic decline.

“Pashinyan’s relations with the CSTO are not working out. And they are complicated with Russia as well. If there is still some ambiguity regarding the EAEU, there is an idea that it is necessary to participate in the EAEU, then with the CSTO, Pashinyan has a clear view that Armenia does not need this organization. By leaving it, he will find himself alone with both Turkey and Azerbaijan, which do not abandon their expansionist views and openly say that they want to resolve their territorial issues at Armenia’s expense.” There is a conflict surrounding Iran, which carries the risk of escalating into a conflict that would spread across the entire Greater East, across all of Western Asia. In this situation, refusing to participate in this post‑Soviet defensive alliance, which was initiated by Russia, would effectively mean being left alone and unarmed in a forest full of wolves. And this action, of course, is dictated precisely by Pashinyan’s convictions, which have been formed throughout his entire political life, one could even say, throughout his entire life as a whole. And these views very often push politicians towards making irrational decisions. “We can see that such decisions very often lead to wars, the impoverishment of the population, and economic decline,” the political analyst emphasized.

“It’s worth saying that no other country in the post‑Soviet space is in such a vulnerable situation as Armenia, because Armenia is surrounded on all sides by countries that treat it rather aggressively,” Kireev concluded.