Azerbaijan, first of all, is oriented towards Turkey, not Russia – Alexander Tsinker

Speaking with Alpha News, Director of the Institute of Eastern Europe and the CIS in Israel Alexander Tsinker commented on the crisis in Russia-Azerbaijan relations, the trial of the former leaders of Artsakh, as well as the talks between the US and Russia on Ukraine.

“So far we have seen a very mild response from Moscow, mainly statements about the hope that all misunderstandings will be resolved soon. It seems to me that due to the situation with the downed plane, Azerbaijan is now trying to pull from Russia as many demands as possible, which may well be presented at meetings later. I don’t know what it will be, perhaps there will be demands on the South Caucasus, on relations with Armenia, or some dividends from Russia, but it seems to me that in general they are taking advantage of this moment. Azerbaijan proceeds from the fact that Russia needs to maintain good relations with Baku more than it does.

Now, after Trump came to power, this idea of peace through force has emerged, that is, they are trying to resolve some issues through force, for example, Azerbaijan closed Sputnik radio. Taking advantage of the fact that the main focus has shifted to relations between Russia and Ukraine, to the problems of the Middle East, Azerbaijan is trying to achieve some of its intermediate goals. Azerbaijan, first of all, is oriented towards Turkey, not towards Russia. And in this situation it is entirely possible that this is a common game,” Tsinker said.

Touching upon the trial of former leaders of Artsakh in Baku, the expert said that first of all, Armenia’s attitude towards this issue should change.

“Firstly, Armenia’s attitude should change, because first of all, Armenia is interested in resolving this issue. But as far as I understand it, the Armenian leadership practically does not speak out on this topic. And if they do not speak out, then why should other countries be engaged in this? Armenia should take the first step, and then we will see which countries will be involved in this process,” Tsinker said.

Speaking about the talks between the US and Russia regarding Ukraine, the political scientist said that it is quite possible that this year we will see a peace agreement on the conflict in Ukraine.

“This is not the first time I have noticed how Trump behaves. These are often not political moves but business moves. In this situation, he is solving some issues for America, and if he believes that today it is beneficial for him to communicate at the level at which communication with Russia takes place, then it will really bear fruit in the near future. Even yesterday, when Macron met with Trump, he said that he believed that military actions between Russia and Ukraine could stop in the coming weeks. So Trump probably convinced him of something. And it is quite possible that this year we will see a peace agreement. If this issue is resolved, in parallel with this, Trump will start resolving issues in the Middle East, and it is quite possible that then it will be the turn of the South Caucasus,” Tsinker said.