Pashinyan’s statements are driven by pre-election logic – Dmitry Rodionov

Speaking with Alpha News, Dmitry Rodionov, Director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies at the Institute for Innovative Development, commented on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement that Armenia has no plans to withdraw the Russian 102nd military base.

According to the political scientist, the Armenian prime minister’s statements appear contradictory.

“When he says that Armenia will hold a referendum on joining the EU, but at the same time does not intend to leave the EAEU, Russian officials have repeatedly stated directly that this is incompatible. He says he does not intend to leave the CSTO, but at the same time advocates close cooperation with NATO and purchases weapons from alliance countries. These are difficult positions to reconcile. Now he again declares that the Russian military base will not be withdrawn. He also noted that Russia played a decisive role in the Karabakh settlement. But hasn’t he, in recent months, at almost every step, claimed that the decisive role was played by US President Donald Trump? Wasn’t that the message he carried to Washington last August? This creates a certain duality: sometimes Russia ‘does something wrong,’ and then suddenly it turns out that Armenia has close cooperation with it, which no one intends to abandon,” Rodionov said.

According to the expert, if new initiatives are implemented, serious security issues may arise.

“If the so-called ‘Trump route’ is launched, then the natural question arises: who will guard it? Many experts believe it could be an American private military company. And if an American PMC enters, tomorrow a full-fledged NATO base may appear. How can this be reconciled with the presence of a Russian military base in Armenia? It cannot. In fact, the agreements Pashinyan signed with Trump consolidate Armenia’s dependent status in relation to a new external partner—the United States. If tomorrow Trump firmly raises the issue of leaving the CSTO, withdrawing the Russian base, or leaving the EAEU, it will be difficult for Pashinyan to resist. Another matter is that Trump is unlikely to act harshly and immediately, understanding the possible consequences,” Rodionov said.

In the political scientist’s view, the current rhetoric of the Armenian authorities may be linked to the domestic political situation.

“If we consider a scenario of gradually shifting foreign policy , then the most unpopular steps—such as constitutional changes, withdrawal from the CSTO or EAEU—may be postponed until after the elections. That is why today’s complimentary statements toward Russia, in my view, are dictated primarily by electoral logic. It is important not to appear as ‘sold out to the West,’ but to maintain the image of a politician who does not intend to withdraw the Russian base or leave allied structures. Because if he now directly declares withdrawal from the CSTO, the EAEU, or the removal of the base, the elections will be lost. And after the elections, the space for decisions becomes much wider. Therefore, I consider all current statements toward Russia exclusively as an element of pre-election tactics,” Rodionov concluded.