Armenia must have strong interest in Iran’s survival – Boris Rozhin

Boris Rozhin, an expert at the Center for Military-Political Journalism, spoke to Alpha News about the situation in the Middle East and the possible consequences of escalation for the South Caucasus.

“A full-scale war is underway, involving many countries. This is a major regional conflict with a tendency to expand further. The peak of this conflict has not yet been reached. At present, there are no prospects for negotiations. Both sides are convinced they are winning: the US and Iran both claim the situation is developing in their favor. Therefore, it cannot be said that the war will end soon or that escalation will stop. Events are unfolding in the opposite direction,” Rozhin said.

According to the expert, after the drone attacks on Nakhichevan, it is impossible to predict Azerbaijan’s next steps.

“It cannot be ruled out that Aliyev, if he sees the Iranian state beginning to collapse, may attempt to seize part of northwestern Iran, where ethnic Azerbaijanis live. Such a scenario cannot be excluded. A full-scale war would be quite dangerous for Azerbaijan, primarily because the foundation of its economy is extremely vulnerable. In the event of a prolonged war, Iran is certainly capable of inflicting serious damage on Azerbaijan’s economy, with long-term consequences. Nevertheless, Aliyev’s close ties with Israel are no secret. They have already been evident before, including during the 2025 war, and have been steadily strengthened. Since the blitzkrieg of the so-called coalition against Iran failed, there is now a rush to find ways to change the situation—attempts are being made to draw various countries into the war against Iran. For example, there were attacks on facilities in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi side has already stated that these could have been carried out by Israel, disguised as Iran. This is an attempt to drag Saudi Arabia into the war. The same attempts were made in the Emirates and Qatar. Tucker Carlson also mentioned that groups engaged in false-flag operations had been arrested. The situation in Nakhichevan is most likely another episode in this chain: first attempts to involve Gulf states, then to activate the Kurdish factor, and now to use the Azerbaijani factor,” Rozhin explained.

In his view, without Iran, Armenia risks being left alone against Turkey and Azerbaijan.

“If Iran is broken and destroyed as a state in its current form, Armenia in its current form is essentially doomed. At best, Armenia would become a vassal state dependent on Azerbaijan and Turkey. Most likely, in the medium term, Armenia could lose its southern part—the so-called ‘Zangezur corridor.’ It simply does not have sufficient military forces to hold this region against Turkey and Azerbaijan. Such plans have been voiced periodically. Therefore, Armenia must have a strong interest in Iran’s survival. Otherwise, it will be left face-to-face with Erdogan and Aliyev,” Rozhin concluded.