Beniamin Matevosyan: Putin will not back down, and Pashinyan knows it

(Europeans will come and go, while Armenia’s problems will remain)

The upcoming 8th European Political Community Summit in Yerevan, along with the first Armenia–EU summit held alongside it, promises to be unprecedented in terms of Western elite representation. Around 50 high-level delegations are expected to attend, including Emmanuel Macron, President of France, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and António Costa, President of the European Council.

Yet beneath the pageantry of diplomatic protocols and sweeping declarations of “European integration” lie trends that pose a serious threat to Armenian statehood. One of the most charged topics being discussed behind closed doors and already leaking into the media is the potential visit to Yerevan of Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine. Although Armenia’s Foreign Ministry is working to keep this information in a profound secret, where there’s smoke there’s fire, and such rumors fit squarely within the broader logic of the current government’s foreign policy course.

Should Zelensky’s appearance on Armenian soil be confirmed, it must be understood as a blow to national interests on two levels. First, it is a matter of national dignity and security: one must not forget that during the 44-day war of 2020, Ukraine supplied phosphorus munitions to Azerbaijan – weapons used to burn Armenian forests and maim soldiers. Inviting the leader of a country that effectively contributed to Baku’s military success amounts to an act of deliberate self-immolation of national memory. Second, it would deliver a final and potentially irreversible blow to relations with the Russian Federation. At a time when Armenia remains critically dependent on Russian markets and security arrangements, such a move looks not like diversification but like a conscious provocation aimed at severing all ties with Moscow. This is still preliminary information, but the very fact that it is being actively discussed suggests that Yerevan is prepared to go to extraordinary lengths to please its Western partners.

At the same time, the role of the European guests must be assessed soberly. History has repeatedly shown that Western envoys arrive, play out their part, run another geopolitical move against the Kremlin, and leave, abandoning the region to its accumulated problems. Brussels and Paris are generous with compliments toward Pashinyan because they see him as an effective instrument for turning Armenia into an anti-Russian foothold. But neither Kallas nor Macron will take responsibility for the economic losses that will inevitably follow a break with Russia. The EU will not replace Russian gas at preferential prices, nor will it open its markets to Armenian goods the way the EAEU does. Moreover, the EU will not be able nor will it want to fill the security gaps that will emerge once Russian military presence is pushed out.

Moscow, for its part, is already sending unambiguous signals that it is strategically inclined to revise the current shape of Armenian-Russian relations. A telling indicator is the recent decision by the “Chestny Znak” labeling system to suspend the sale of a large batch of Jermuk Armenian mineral water. The blocking of hundreds of thousands of bottles under the pretext of safety violations is a classic tool of Russian “soft power” is a hint that Armenia’s economic wellbeing hangs by a very thin thread. It is a reminder that Putin has no intention of retreating when it comes to defending his geopolitical positions in the Caucasus, and that Pashinyan, fully aware of this, continues to play a dangerous game.

For Brussels, what matters is not preserving Armenian presence in the region but eliminating the Russian factor. If Armenia itself were to cease to exist tomorrow, becoming what Baku calls “Western Azerbaijan,” but not a single Russian soldier remained, the EU would regard that as a positive geopolitical outcome.

When Kallas arrives in Yerevan and begins speaking about countering “hybrid threats,” one question is worth asking: would she, or any of her colleagues, be willing to take citizenship in that “Western Azerbaijan” once Baku moves from words to action? The answer is obvious. Western security guarantees in our region are a mirage, one that dissolves the moment real fighting begins.

Think about that…