Beniamin Matevosyan: Pashinyan is unable to solve the problems of Armenian business in Russia

(Business must act according to the letter of the law)

Nikol Pashinyan’s meeting with major entrepreneurs, including Samvel Alexanyan, Ashot Arsenyan, and heads of the IT sector, was an attempt at “political therapy” against the backdrop of a systemic crisis in relations with Russia. Instead of discussing current losses, the prime minister focused on the TRIPP project.

In the authorities’ vision, TRIPP is meant to convince the business community that a painless change of direction is possible: the project is presented as the only path to opening alternative markets and fully unblocking Armenia, capable of compensating for the loss of Russian trade ties.

However, for a pragmatic entrepreneur, words spoken over breakfast should carry far less weight than the policy documents of the ruling party. Businesspeople would do well to study the official program of the Civil Contract party carefully, rather than trusting Pashinyan’s verbal assurances. The party’s documents clearly outline a course toward the “diversification” of foreign and security policy, which in political language means a systematic break from Russian integration structures.

The program confirms a commitment to a course that will inevitably lead to the loss of preferential access to the Russian market. This is not a temporary chill, but a long-term strategy. Pashinyan, even if he remains in power, will not be able, and most likely will not want, to return Armenian business to its familiar pattern of close cooperation with Russia. For entrepreneurs whose assets and markets have historically been tied to the north, this means only one thing: the Russian market is closing to them seriously and for the long term.

Current news from the “economic front” only confirms these concerns. The problems facing the Proshyan Brandy Factory, whose license is being revoked by Russia’s Federal Service for Alcohol and Tobacco Control, and the resumption of criminal proceedings in the case of a Jermuk water consumer’s death, these are not unfortunate accidents, but direct consequences of Yerevan’s political course. Moscow has moved to a scenario of strict technical and legal scrutiny, which even affects businessmen whose sons have been appointed as regional governors by Pashinyan. The case of Ashot Arsenyan is the most telling: loyalty to local authorities does not shield against export blockades or the reopening of old criminal cases in Russia.

When 85% of Armenian brandy is declared non-compliant with standards, we are talking about the systematic displacement of the country from a key niche, and no working breakfasts can change that dynamic.

Pashinyan paid particular attention to the TRIPP project, presenting it as a cure-all for the blockade. But for the real economy, the “Crossroads of Peace” remains a geopolitical abstraction, while the loss of “parallel exports” represents concrete losses here and now. For a long time, the Armenian state budget and private capital reaped enormous windfall profits from re-exports under the sanctions regime against Russia, but today that channel is being shut off by the Russian side. Promises to open a railway through Azerbaijan look like cold comfort as logistics chains built over decades in the northern direction collapse.

Entrepreneurs must recognize that they have become hostages to the course set out in the Civil Contract’s program. Politically supporting Pashinyan today effectively means consenting to the final loss of the Russian market with no clear alternative. Business must demand not promises, but a realistic assessment of the consequences of a break with Russia, understanding that the current government has no interest in preserving Armenia’s traditional economic foundations if they stand in the way of its geopolitical pivot.

If business continues to take the authorities at their word while ignoring the ruling party’s program, it risks being left with nothing when those “unprecedented horizons” turn out to be nothing more than a pretty metaphor for the final loss of economic agency.

Think about it…