Aliyev is following Ukraine’s path: Alexey Leonkov

Military analyst Alexey Leonkov commented to Alpha News on statements by Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, regarding support for Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia.

“Everyone understands that Aliyev is expressing the position he’s expected to express, being an ally of Turkey and, by extension, of Great Britain. He has no other formulation available to him. He even tried playing anti-Russian sentiment against Russia. When a plane was allegedly shot down by the Russians and he spoke out against Russian journalists over it, all these attention-grabbing moves of his are never seen as friendly. But if Azerbaijan keeps going down this road, it will end up on the list of unfriendly countries, with all the consequences that entails. For now, though, Russia’s leadership isn’t making that decision,” the Alpha News source said.

According to Leonkov, Aliyev may repeat Ukraine’s tragic fate in its relations with Russia.

“Aliyev is playing out a role, following the same path Ukraine took, Ukraine also believed NATO would cover for it and so on. As a result, they’re now losing their country. The thing is, because of all sorts of ongoing schemes, the role of both Azerbaijan and Armenia in the South Caucasus is the same, they’ll have to provide cover for the route called TRIPP, along which all the mineral resources will be shipped in the interests of the US. Meaning, if needed, they’ll later reformat it into an anti-Russian format, and, so to speak, share Ukraine’s fate, if they keep pushing this agenda and moving in this direction,” Leonkov added.

The expert expressed cautious optimism about Russian-Azerbaijani relations, but stressed that he holds no great illusions.

“There’s still hope that some kind of agreement can be reached with Azerbaijan, and that diplomacy can pull it over to Russia’s side after all, because Aliyev does waver at times. I think, most likely, these are empty hopes, because they’re on the same level as the hopes Russia once had for the Minsk agreements. The West will make Azerbaijan play against Russia regardless, and, unfortunately, all diplomatic efforts will sink into oblivion,” Leonkov concluded.