Beniamin Matevosyan: Russia is punishing Civil Contract members personally

(Sanctions will intensify)

The rapid cooling of relations between Moscow and Yerevan is moving into a phase of targeted responses, where diplomacy is giving way to personal punitive measures. The diplomatic scandal over remarks by David Arushanyan, Governor of Shirak Province, showed that Russia is casting aside its usual diplomatic niceties and intends to take a personalised approach towards members of Armenia’s ruling elite. A proposal by Vladimir Dzhabarov, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Rules, to consider banning Arushanyan from entering Russia was a clear signal: public displays of disregard for Russia will no longer go without a tough response.

The background to this episode is highly typical of the current domestic political rhetoric of the Armenian authorities. On social media, Arushanyan criticised the Gyumri City Day celebrations organised by Samvel Karapetyan’s opposition party Strong Armenia. In the heat of the moment, the governor declared that “the people of Gyumri are not your Ivans.” The Russian Embassy responded to these words, pointing out their similarity to the language of the German Nazis during the Great Patriotic War. Backing the diplomats, Dzhabarov recalled that it was these very “Ivans” who had once saved the Armenian people, and that today Gyumri’s peace is guarded by the 102nd military base and Russian border guards. In the senator’s view, the official is working from the standard playbooks of Western NGOs that promote russophobia, following the example of Ukraine, Moldova and the Baltic states.

Looked at objectively, the Shirak governor said nothing at all unusual within the Civil Contract paradigm, especially compared with statements by Alen Simonyan, Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, or by Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister, himself. Today, during government question time in the National Assembly, Pashinyan once again de facto accused Russia of being behind the tragedies of Armenia and the Armenian people, saying: “When there were guarantors, the situation ended in catastrophe for Armenia and the Armenian people.” Arushanyan merely demonstrated, once again, the ruling team’s attitude towards Russia and its state-forming people, the Russian people.

However, the harshness of Russia’s reaction is explained by a far more global factor. For about a year now, Moscow has clearly understood that Armenia under Pashinyan has made a final geopolitical choice to turn away from Russia and integrate into the camp of its direct geopolitical adversaries. In this new reality, every word, action, comment or legislative initiative from Yerevan is examined in Moscow under a microscope.

These measures are already being applied in practice at the highest state level. Not long ago, Lusine Badalyan, MP from the ruling Civil Contract party, was officially turned back at the airport when trying to fly to Russia and informed that she was banned from entering the country. The incident clearly confirmed that Moscow has moved from warning rhetoric to restrictive action. Against this backdrop, Armenian politicians continue to raise the stakes by calling the country’s key security institutions into question.

Sarik Minasyan, MP from Civil Contract, went even further than the governor, stating in parliament that the Russian 102nd military base does not serve any security purpose at all. Reducing the base’s presence to a minor economic boost for the city, Minasyan complained that Russian officers are exempt from property tax, and concluded by claiming that in the event of a war with Turkey, the Russian base would last only 20 minutes. Such speeches no longer look like private opinions. They are an established party line, culminating in statements by Pashinyan, who asked outright in parliament: “Do you know who was the guarantor of Ukraine’s security?”

Whether Armenian society realises it or not, the country is confidently stepping onto the same dangerous path that Ukraine once took. It is worth recalling the timeline: on 1 November 2018, Russia imposed its first large-scale targeted economic sanctions against Kyiv. The restrictions banned entry into Russia and froze the assets of an initial 322 Ukrainian citizens, including key officials, ministers and MPs, as well as 68 companies. Back then, Kyiv also mocked the personal bans.

The current measures, from Lusine Badalyan being turned back at the border to the restrictions being prepared for Arushanyan, are not simply an emotional reaction but the beginning of a cascade of personal and economic sanctions. Moscow is starting to systematically close its doors to members of the Armenian establishment. And if the ruling party continues to demonstratively dismantle the basic framework of the country’s security, the list of “undesirable persons” and targeted restrictions will expand with predictable inevitability.

And most importantly, where in all this are the interests of the Armenian people and the citizens of Armenia? Why is the government, which instils fear in the population about a war with Azerbaijan, doing everything to make Russia see Armenia as an unfriendly state?

Think about it…