US may step up escalation against Iran after November elections: Yevgeny Semibratov

Yevgeny Semibratov, Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at RUDN University, spoke to Alpha News about possible scenarios for the further development of the conflict between the United States and Iran, the likelihood of a large-scale military operation and Washington’s prospects for getting out of the current situation.

“Americans are generally very strong at strategic planning and always work through several scenarios. If we start from the extremes, according to media reports, exercises are currently being held in the United States to prepare temporary mass graves. This may be an indirect sign that the Trump administration is, after all, considering an operation involving a large-scale invasion of Iran as an extreme scenario. At the same time, given the US armed forces’ capacity to conduct operations of this scale, it must be acknowledged that they are currently unable to assemble a force of hundreds of thousands of troops in the Persian Gulf area. Accordingly, such exercises, which are essentially quite inexpensive, may also be a kind of information noise aimed at raising the stakes, escalating the situation and demonstrating that the American leadership intends to go all the way,” Semibratov said.

According to the expert, there is a high likelihood of a new escalation of the conflict with Iran after the November elections in the United States.

“In the final stretch of his second term, it is quite possible that Trump will act more aggressively. So I would not rule out a high likelihood of a new escalation after the November elections. Most likely, the Americans will still try to stay within the framework of a so-called contactless war. And this situation, this strange contactless war, will continue at least until the end of Donald Trump’s presidential term. After that, his successors, or the Democrats if they return to the White House, will consider various face-saving ways out of this situation. Because Iran will not let Trump out of this story. The only country that can help him get out of the situation while saving face is Russia. But Russia, again, can only broker a compromise in which Iran will not look like the losing side either. In my view, there is no other way for Trump to get out of this story,” Semibratov concluded.