Large-scale escalation with Iran could cause political problems for Trump: Mikhail Sinelnikov-Orishak

Mikhail Sinelnikov-Orishak, a political scientist and expert on the United States, spoke to Alpha News about a possible escalation of the military confrontation between the US and Iran and the political risks for Donald Trump’s administration.

In the expert’s view, a large-scale escalation of the conflict with Iran could have undesirable consequences primarily for the US administration itself. In particular, further military action could complicate the domestic political situation ahead of the midterm congressional elections.

“Escalation in Iran, perhaps that option is being considered, but, paradoxically, it would be undesirable above all for the Trump administration itself. Yes, it’s an extreme scenario. No surprises have been expected from the midterms for a long time; the only question is how much the Democrats will shift the balance. Will it be a wave, meaning a significant increase in their representation in Congress, or just minor fluctuations? The administration is more or less prepared for that scenario,” Sinelnikov-Orishak said.

According to the political scientist, a new military escalation could call into question the justification for the previous strikes on Iran and require Washington to clearly explain the goals of further operations.

“Escalation in Iran could once again lead to very undesirable political consequences. First of all, when everything is under your command and Congress is more or less manageable, with Republicans everywhere, it’s hard to raise the question of how justified the second strike was. And you need firm objectives. Trump himself has already said that the program for which all this was started has been accomplished. So either you were lying back then, when you said everything had been achieved, or you are lying now, when a second or third round of military pressure on Iran begins,” Sinelnikov-Orishak concluded.