“Let’s surrender ‘enclaves’ to live well”

Nikol Pashinyan’s interview with the Armenian Public Television can be divided into several thematic blocks – elections of the mayor of Yerevan, Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, Armenian-Turkish relations, confrontation with Russia and bright European perspectives. And the headline might sound like this: “Surrender enclaves and be happy,” or “Declare war on Russia and be happy,” or “Turkiye is not an enemy, and the ‘Zangezur Corridor’ is not a problem.”

It should be noted that contrary to what the government’s propaganda tried to instill in the Armenian society after the meeting in Granada, it became clear from Pashinyan’s interview that official Yerevan is ready to surrender the “enclaves.” To put it differently, Pashinyan is ready to surrender such territories in the Ararat and Tavush regions that will allow Aliyev’s regime to exercise total control over the transport and energy infrastructures that connect Armenia with the outside world and are the core of the Armenian economy.

At the same time, Pashinyan once again attempted to manipulate public consciousness, stating that “having potentially lost Tigranashen, Voskepar and other enclaves, Armenia could gain Artsvashen.”
Firstly, it should be emphasized that the loss of control over the “enclaves” is fraught with energy and transport isolation not only for Syunik, but for the whole of Armenia. Secondly, for the modern Armenian state, the “enclaves” under the control of official Yerevan are much more important from a strategic point of view than Artsvashen.

Artsvashen today separates almost 15 km of Azerbaijani territory from the Armenian border. If we abstract from the emotional component, then having received Artsvashen, official Yerevan will face the issues of not only populating this territory, but also forming a new border, ensuring unimpeded communication between the regional center and Artsvashen, supply issues, and so on. At the same time, soon after a possible exchange, these “enclaves”, both on one side and on the other (certainly on the other side) will turn into “military islands” or, if you like, bridgeheads, and will become a security headache for both parties. Thus, the conflict will not only not be extinguished, but will receive a new “support on the ground” for escalation.

It is also important to note that Nikol Pashinyan talked about “enclaves” in the context of discussions of the results of the EU summit in Granada. And if we remove all fictitious formulations, then it becomes clear from Pashinyan’s words that even the surrender of the “enclaves”, recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, which includes Artsakh, mean absolutely nothing, since Azerbaijan has refused to publicly recognize the territorial integrity of Armenia and secure its recognition with a legally and politically binding signature, and it continues to refuse.

Despite Baku’s refusal to recognize the territorial integrity of Armenia, Pashinyan in his interview continued to aggravate the crisis in Armenian-Russian relations.

From the words of Nikol Pashinyan, it becomes clear that the intention to withdraw Russian peacekeepers from Artsakh has not gone away, and, judging by the clarifying question, official Yerevan wants the Russian peacekeepers to leave Nagorno-Karabakh through the territory of Azerbaijan, and not stay long in Armenia. And if it seems to you that the question about the potential withdrawal of 102nd military base and Russian border guards from Armenia was asked by chance, then you obviously do not see the full picture. Moreover, it was almost direct blackmail: if peacekeepers are withdrawn from the territory of Armenia, and moreover if they want to stay, then official Yerevan will raise the issue of withdrawing the entire Russian contingent from Armenia.

As for Pashinyan’s words that “according to the statement of November 9, 2020, Russia should not ensure the security of transport communications between the western regions of Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, it is obvious that they were not a reservation. He is well aware that in the 9th paragraph of the statement dated November 9, 2020 it is clearly written: “Control over transport communications is carried out by the Border Service of the FSB of Russia.”

This whole situation with the blockade of Artsakh, and then the military aggression and forced exodus of Armenians from the Republic of Artsakh was done not to comply with this point of the tripartite statement of November 9, 2020. War was declared on Russia precisely so that the border service of the FSB of the Russian Federation would not exercise control over transport communications, since in this case Pashinyan would lose the loyalty of the West and guarantees of personal security.

For Pashinyan, the statement of November 9 no longer exists, and the slogan “let’s surrender Karabakh to live well” has already been transformed into the slogan “let’s surrender enclaves to live well.”