Aliyev’s statements about Russia’s replacement on Europe’s energy market are premature: Alexey Gromov

Alexey Gromov, Chief Director for Energy at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Alpha News on the statement by Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, that Azerbaijan is ready to replace Russia on the gas market.

According to the expert, Azerbaijan has already taken advantage of the deterioration in relations between Russia and Europe, redirecting most of its oil and gas exports to the European market. However, statements about a further substantial increase in supplies to Europe are premature for now.

“Azerbaijan has already been present on the European market for quite some time. Moreover, since 2022, almost all of Azerbaijan’s oil and gas exports have been oriented exclusively toward European countries. To some extent, Azerbaijan has taken advantage of the deterioration in geopolitical relations between Europe and Russia, as well as the withdrawal of Russian energy resources from the European market, replacing them with its own wherever possible. But to claim that Azerbaijan is ready to further increase its exports of energy resources to Europe, I would call premature. Simply because, today and at least until 2030, Azerbaijan’s existing resource potential will not increase significantly. And since it will not increase significantly, the volumes of Azerbaijani hydrocarbon exports will remain at roughly the same level, if they don’t decrease. Because for several years now we have been witnessing a steady decline in the volume of oil exports from Azerbaijan, as well as in production volumes. The only positive point for Azerbaijan is the growth in natural gas production and some increase in the volume of its exports,” the expert noted.

According to Gromov, it will take several years for the country to be able to increase its capacity to meet the needs of the European market.

“But again, at the moment almost all the resources Azerbaijan has for increasing exports are already being used, and it will take several more years for the country to be able to increase its capacity to meet the needs of the European market. So, this is more of a claim about the future. Aliyev understands that relations between Russia and Europe are damaged, and in the long term Azerbaijan is counting on Europe as the main market for selling its hydrocarbons, which, in fact, is already happening now,” said Gromov.