Armenia’s EU integration could take years and doesn’t guarantee membership: Igor Yushkov

Igor Yushkov, lead analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, commented to Alpha News on statements by Armenian authorities about the country’s possible accession to the European Union and withdrawal from the EAEU.

“It seems to me Pashinyan is saying it plainly: essentially, we will continue preparing for EU accession and will voluntarily withdraw from the EAEU. At least, that’s what he’ll do once it becomes absolutely clear that Armenia is being accepted into the EU. Because at every point in time, he wants to reap the benefits of participating in whatever alliance, whatever format is available to Armenia. So if he withdraws from the EAEU right now and says honestly, ‘Yes, we want to join the EU, so we’re leaving the EAEU and will pursue that path,’ he would lose the benefits that EAEU membership gives the country,” Yushkov said.

In the analyst’s view, Armenia’s EU accession process could drag on for years, with no guarantee it will ever be successfully completed.

“Moving toward the EU is a long process. It’s not even certain this process will ever be completed, that Armenia will actually be accepted into the EU. We remember the case of Turkey and a number of other countries that have tried for years, even decades, to get in, and their attempts ultimately haven’t succeeded. So why worsen living standards for that? After all, it would reduce Pashinyan’s popularity, and fewer people would vote for him. He’s taking advantage of the fact that the EAEU’s founding documents don’t contain a provision for expelling a country from the format, there’s voluntary withdrawal, but currently there’s no legal basis for the other members to expel a country by a single decision,” the expert noted.

According to Yushkov, Moscow believes that if Armenia is making a strategic choice in favor of European integration, it should withdraw from the EAEU now.

“Russia, in fact, wants exactly the opposite from Pashinyan. If you’re setting out on the path of European integration, you should already be leaving the EAEU now, calling on him, so to speak, to be an honest, responsible politician. Because when the question arises of all of us admitting Armenia into the European Union, if that ever happens, then of course at that point it will need to leave the EAEU,” Yushkov emphasized.

According to the expert, withdrawal from the EAEU would create serious economic problems for Armenia and lead to higher energy costs.

“Withdrawing from the EAEU creates a whole host of problems for Armenia. At the very least, export and import duties would be reinstated. And in the energy sector specifically, the price of gas would rise by 30%, because Russia has an export duty on gas for countries outside the EAEU, that’s 30% of the market price. And de facto, I think even the commercial contract itself would be revised. If Armenia leaves the EAEU, the same thing would happen with other energy resources and goods. In other words, Russia would then impose import duties on goods coming from Armenia, and that would create enormous economic problems. So, of course, Pashinyan is in no hurry to leave the favorable EAEU format while there are no guarantees from the EU,” Yushkov concluded.