Attempts are being made to turn Armenia into an “anti-Russia” in the Caucasus: Konstantin Sivkov

Russian military expert Konstantin Sivkov assessed the situation in Armenia during a session of the “Lazarev Club,” commenting to Alpha News on the risks of the country’s strengthening pro-Western course and a possible deterioration of relations with Russia.

“Today Armenia is being steered toward an anti-Russian course, and there are those who want to turn it into a ‘Ukraine-2’, a kind of ‘anti-Russia’ in the Caucasus. If they succeed, they will then seek to destabilize the socio-political situation in Russia, primarily in the North Caucasus. That, in my view, is what they are counting on. Attempts may also be made to use the Armenian diaspora in Russia. This is a typical hybrid warfare tactic. As for the Armenian Apostolic Church and Armenians living in Russia and other countries, I am firmly convinced that we are obliged to support the Armenian people and protect them in the event of open military aggression by other states,” Sivkov said.

Commenting on talk of a possible resettlement of 300,000 Azerbaijanis in Armenia, the expert noted that such a scenario is possible if the current political course of the authorities continues.

“Whether it comes to war will depend largely on how close the cooperation between Armenia’s new leadership and Russia turns out to be. If that cooperation is close and allied in nature, Azerbaijan will likely not risk military action, as Russia would be able to act within its CSTO obligations in defense of Armenia. If the new leader pursues a more moderate policy and does not follow a clearly pro-Russian course, then the probability of Azerbaijan initiating military action will, in my view, remain. For this reason, I consider Pashinyan’s statements about the inevitability of war after his departure to be largely declarative and insufficiently grounded. At present, the prospect of a politician coming to power who would pursue a balanced, multi-vector policy appears unlikely. Most probably, it will come down to either a pro-Western or a Eurasian, pro-Russian course,” Sivkov concluded.