Azerbaijan is not willing to sign a peace agreement — Alexander Tsinker

Speaking with Alpha News, Alexander Tsinker, Director of the Institute of Eastern Europe and the CIS in Israel, commented on the likelihood of a renewed escalation of the conflict in Armenia.

“Escalation is quite possible, but it won’t necessarily manifest as shootings—this is only the external background. What truly matters is whether Azerbaijan is willing to sign a peace agreement. So far, as I have often said, I see no indication that Azerbaijan has any desire to do so. Baku has a desire to maintain the current status quo at the border—a dynamic balance that can shift in either direction.

If at some point Azerbaijan and Turkey decide that the moment has come and they can try to shift this balance in the direction of starting some actions on the border—and they will find a pretext—then they will say that the Armenian armed forces are shelling the border and some civilian villages, settlements. They could then say they will not tolerate those provocations and initiate action,” Tsinker said.

According to the expert, Azerbaijan is delaying the process, trying to decide something for itself.

“If at some point Azerbaijan does understand that it is necessary to conclude a peace agreement, I believe the shootings on the border from both sides—if they truly occur—will stop. There will be some real stop to this confrontation and the signing of some kind of agreement. As far as I understand, Armenia is ready to sign a peace agreement, but Azerbaijan has paused, perhaps it is now trying to decide something for itself,” Tsinker concluded.