Iran perceives the attack as a provocation by enemies of the Islamic Republic: Ilya Baskakov

Ilya Baskakov, Iranologist and Junior Research Fellow at the Department of Middle Eastern and Post-Soviet Eastern Studies at the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences (INION RAS), commented to Alpha News on Ukraine’s strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea.

“Undoubtedly, this strike by the Ukrainian side on an Iranian merchant vessel in the Caspian Sea, which resulted in one death and one injury, is a serious blow to Iran’s national honor, which is the foundation of its entire foreign policy ideology. In this regard, the country’s leadership cannot fail to respond to these actions. The other question is what character this response will take. Here it’s necessary to understand Tehran’s overall view of the current global and regional situation. In Tehran, as elsewhere in the world, there is an awareness that the current conflicts are interconnected. Though, of course, this understanding varies from side to side. And while Ukrainian representatives claim that Iranians and North Koreans have already attacked Ukraine, the Iranian side has stated that Ukraine attacked this merchant vessel on Israel’s orders in order to drag Europe into a war in the Middle East. And, of course, if Iran holds this view of the premises behind the attack, then it must also be aware of the risks to the success of this Kyiv venture,” Baskakov said.

According to the expert, Iran has no interest in opening a full-fledged new front beyond the Persian Gulf and will perceive this attack as an isolated strike and provocation by enemies of the Islamic Republic.

“Another important factor to consider: during the American blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf, the Caspian became a vital supply line for Iran, for its food security and its economy as a whole. And this vessel, which was traveling from the Russian port of Astrakhan to the Iranian port of Enzeli, was of course part of this vital supply chain. But it was a single vessel. And, naturally, this isolated incident does not raise the question of preserving Iranian statehood as a whole. In this regard, if Iran’s response does take a military form, it will most likely be limited in nature. And it probably won’t be necessary to talk about the likelihood of a full-scale, large-scale war emerging in the Caspian Sea region,” Baskakov noted.

According to the expert, Iran is focused on deterrence and preventing further escalation of the conflict.

“If we’re talking about the likelihood of using any military means, it’s worth taking into account Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and proxy allies. But it’s most likely worth emphasizing political action on Iran’s part, because at the core of its political and military-political strategy, Iran is focused on deterrence, on preventing further escalation of the conflict. Plus, of course, Iran’s attention right now is too heavily concentrated on the southern direction, on the Persian Gulf zone, and Tehran has no interest in opening a full-fledged new front beyond the Gulf. In this regard, Iran will likely perceive this attack as exactly what it most probably is, an isolated strike and provocation by enemies of the Islamic Republic,” Baskakov concluded.