Beniamin Matevosyan: Coffins on the streets of Yerevan – what to expect after the brawl in parliament

(Pashinyan reveals his plans)

The mass brawl that broke out in the National Assembly on October 29 between MPs from the ruling Civil Contract party and the opposition Strong Armenia faction has clearly shown that the country’s deep political crisis, far from being resolved, is rapidly entering a new, even more dangerous phase. The incident was not a random emotional outburst or an isolated episode. It must be viewed in close connection with official statements that the final text of the new Constitution will be published as early as mid-November.

This step clearly points to the leadership’s timetable: by mid-December, when the draft basic law is due to go before parliament for approval, Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister, apparently plans a large-scale forceful and emotional assault on the legislature.

“Something very strange will happen: while it is usually the opposition that holds demonstrations outside parliament, this time it is quite possible that the government will start a demonstration, and as a result the people will demand that the opposition vote for the constitutional amendments,” he said at a briefing on October 29.

The scenario will be modeled on the events of October 2018, when the parliament building was effectively blockaded by a crowd that took to the streets at Pashinyan’s call. The government will try to repeat this trick by summoning supporters to the walls of the National Assembly, raising psychological tension to the limit, openly pressuring MPs and pushing for a vote on setting a referendum date.

It is crucial for the opposition to study these risks thoroughly and be fully prepared for such a scenario, bearing in mind that no one can take away legitimate tools of resistance, including counter-rallies and the systematic mobilization of public dissent.

If Pashinyan fails to force through a decision on the referendum date, it will give opposition forces an absolute, indisputable and legitimate reason to demand immediate snap parliamentary elections and to put the strongest possible protest pressure on the ruling team. It is important to understand that this time a large segment of citizens who are still taking a wait-and-see approach will inevitably join the core of the protest movement. In the very near future, these people will feel in their own lives, wallets and well-being the grave consequences of Pashinyan’s foreign policy, namely the inevitable economic hardship caused by the de facto freezing of Armenia’s membership in the EAEU.

The government already finds itself in an extremely vulnerable position. Civil Contract lacks the stable majority needed to pass the “Aliyev Constitution” on its own (the required minimum is 71 seats, while Civil Contract currently holds only 64). There is no hope of financial compensation for the losses from severing integration ties with the Eurasian Economic Union: neither the European Union nor Azerbaijan intends to provide money to plug these gaps. At the same time, Russia is clearly demonstrating that Moscow is not joking or issuing political warnings for effect, and genuinely intends to expel the republic from the union if the current course continues.

The ruling elite, and Pashinyan personally, have no influence whatsoever over any of these fundamental foreign policy and economic circumstances. It is precisely this powerlessness on external fronts that breeds unprecedented aggression at home, which can only be directed at the opposition and dissenters. It is obvious that the number of clashes and scuffles in parliament, media attacks and political arrests will only grow in the coming months. The worse and more deadlocked Pashinyan’s position becomes in relations with the outside world, the harsher, more nervous and more aggressive the ruling team will behave within Armenian society. Such brawls and provocations will stop only when the country holds proper elections that result in Civil Contract finally losing its parliamentary majority and

power.

However, even if Pashinyan manages to secure the desired referendum vote through the harshest street blackmail, pressure on MPs and coercion, it will not solve a single problem facing the state. Such an approach will only create the illusion of victory. Official Baku seeks to sign a peace deal and lock in the results with the Armenian people, not the adoption of a document forced through a dubious referendum held effectively “at gunpoint, with a gun held to the opposition’s head” and amid severe internal chaos.

For its part, the Russian Federation will continue to firmly demand the withdrawal and abandonment of legislative initiatives related to European integration, insisting on a fair and open referendum on the fundamental choice between the EAEU and the EU.

Having backed himself into a corner with contradictory promises and forceful methods of governance, Pashinyan will simply sink deeper into a severe deficit of legitimacy. An extremely difficult and turbulent 2027 lies ahead for the country, and every step the government takes will only bring the protracted political crisis closer to its resolution.

Think about it…