Beniamin Matevosyan: Is Armenia being expelled from both the EAEU and the CSTO?

(We may enter 2027 with an economic and military crisis)

The statement by Taalatbek Masadykov, Secretary General of the CSTO, marks an important stage in the history of independent Armenia. “Participation, expulsion and other issues related to the Republic of Armenia within the CSTO are decided by the heads of state at the sessions of the Collective Security Council. I think the issue will probably be addressed. Whether it will be addressed at the upcoming session of the Collective Security Council or not is a matter for our heads of state,” the CSTO secretary general said.

Masadykov’s words that questions of participation or possible expulsion of Armenia are decided by the heads of state at Collective Security Council sessions, and that this topic may be put on the agenda of the nearest session, sound like an unambiguous warning. At the highest administrative level, the organization has effectively stopped hiding that a scenario in which Armenia ends up outside the CSTO is not just being considered but has moved into the practical sphere. The fact that Yerevan has de facto not paid membership fees for the third year and has frozen its participation only speeds up this process.

At the same time, equally alarming processes are unfolding on the economic track. A report by the Eurasian Economic Commission, published the day before and prepared by Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, in effect presents Yerevan with a harsh ultimatum. If by the end of the year the country has not abandoned its course toward joining the European Union, or has not set a date for a corresponding referendum, Armenia’s participation in the EAEU will be suspended. The figures cited in the document look catastrophic for the national economy. The projected 15.6% drop in GDP amounts to about $4.6 billion in direct losses. A surge in inflation of almost 15 percentage points, a fall in consumer demand and a decline of more than 55% in trade with partners in the union threaten to bring about the collapse of entire sectors.

The end of the EAEU preferential regime will deal a crushing blow to Armenian exports, which could plunge by 65%. The return of full customs and phytosanitary controls, the end of recognition of product conformity documents and the loss of advantages in public procurement will instantly undermine the competitiveness of Armenian goods in traditional markets. Tougher conditions for labor migrants will be a separate problem. The return of patents, work permits and quotas, and the loss of social benefits for hundreds of thousands of Armenian citizens in EAEU countries will inevitably lead to a sharp drop in remittances to Armenia, which will hit the most vulnerable segments of the population.

The situation is developing in such a way that by January 1, 2027, Armenia risks losing its membership in both the economic union and the military-political bloc at once. The statements and steps of the current authorities, led by Nikol Pashinyan, are leading to the consistent dismantling of the existing security architecture and the destruction of economic ties. The drive to push Russia out of the region and reorient foreign policy is taking place amid a lack of any real, legally binding security guarantees from the new potential partners.

As a result of the course being pursued, the country finds itself in an extremely vulnerable position. Growing isolation, potential integration into the Turkic world without external checks and balances, and a large-scale economic shock are shaping the contours of the deepest systemic crisis. If the current vector remains unchanged, Armenia will enter 2027 with no defensive shield at all and facing severe economic turbulence.

Think about it…