Beniamin Matevosyan: Is Putin demanding that Armenia abandon the Rome Statute?

(Russia’s attention to Yerevan continues to grow)

Moscow’s latest public statements indicate that Russia’s attention to Armenia has reached an extraordinary level of intensity. Relations between Yerevan and Moscow are no longer treated as an ordinary partnership: the Russian state machine is tracking Armenia’s actions literally in real time. Any sensitive issue, whether the fate of the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant, the prospects for building the Firebird data center, or the country’s legal obligations to international bodies, triggers a reaction from Russian agencies and key spokespeople. Attention to Armenia is steadily rising, and the Kremlin expects Yerevan to give the clearest, most unambiguous answers on all key questions of geopolitical choice.

Further evidence of the shift in emphasis is an official statement by Russia’s Security Council, which directly linked Armenia’s participation in the International Criminal Court (ICC) to Yerevan’s European course. The Security Council stated that ratification of the Rome Statute (the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court was ratified on October 3, 2023) is one of the key political conditions for states seeking EU membership. Moscow also stressed that the Armenian authorities’ original arguments for using ICC mechanisms to internationally investigate border conflicts with Azerbaijan have so far not been backed by any concrete cases (in other words, the Russian Security Council is pointing out that, after ratifying the Rome Statute, Pashinyan, contrary to the propaganda, has never tried to hold Azerbaijani criminals accountable through ICC institutions). The Russian side is thereby making clear that Moscow sees ICC jurisdiction solely as an element of political integration with the West, not as a tool for Armenia’s national security.

The emerging trend suggests that Moscow’s package of demands on Yerevan continues to expand steadily. Under these circumstances, renouncing the jurisdiction of the Rome Statute could effectively be presented to Armenia as a mandatory ultimatum for retaining full participation in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Cancelling the legal procedures for integration with the ICC is being placed alongside the demand to scrap the bill on launching the EU accession process. Moscow no longer considers it possible to combine EAEU membership with a course toward integration into European structures, and Yerevan’s lack of clear answers on these points poses a direct threat to the entire Armenian economy, which depends critically on EAEU markets and energy resources.

The Kremlin’s tougher rhetoric should be viewed in the context of a broader transformation of Russian foreign policy. Following the end of the electoral cycle in Russia, Moscow is shifting to a harsher, more uncompromising style of pressure on all external fronts. A clear illustration of this strategy is the intense escalation of hostilities around Ukraine, as well as the unprecedented letter Russia sent to NATO. According to diplomatic sources, Moscow has officially warned the alliance that it is prepared to use its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons, in the event of any attempt to isolate or blockade the Kaliningrad Region.

This gesture, which European defense officials have already called the first such direct nuclear threat since the Cold War, clearly shows that Moscow is raising the stakes in the global confrontation. With the Kremlin ready to take extremely sharp steps against NATO and the West, its demands on its closest allies in the post-Soviet space are becoming fully transparent. Yerevan is expected to make a final choice as soon as possible, and dragging out the pause or trying to balance between Brussels and Moscow risks severe socioeconomic and military-political consequences for Armenia.

Think about it…