No one knows when Trump will decide to attack Iran – Marat Bashirov

Marat Bashirov, professor at the Higher School of Economics and political analyst, spoke to Alpha News about a possible US strike against Iran.

“The situation in Iran is multilayered. It is fundamentally different from what we saw in the summer of 2025, when the superiority of American forces was obvious. Now, in my view, even under several massive waves of bombing and missile strikes from the United States and Israel, the Iranians are capable of responding. Their response could vary: targeting only American bases, only Israel, or striking both. They might even add strikes against US allies in the Middle East, which is a serious concern for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman. This multilayered situation—where the Americans have military superiority but the Iranians can still retaliate—creates uncertainty. No one really knows when Trump will make his decision,” the expert said.

According to Bashirov, Iran is prepared to make concessions, but only within certain limits.

“Trump is a man who thinks in categories different from those of military experts. He always introduces another factor—personal excitement and profit. If excitement is an emotional factor, profit is very calculated. From this perspective, Iran behaves extremely rationally. Iran has said: if you want to participate in its oil projects—fine, let’s talk. If you want to invest, even better; your share will be larger. If you want us to freeze the nuclear program, the military one—let’s discuss the level of uranium enrichment. If you want monitoring—fine, let the IAEA return. But Iran also sets red lines: ‘We are not ready to discuss the nuclear program, nor political reforms, meaning changes to the state system.’ This is a rational negotiation,” the political analyst concluded.