Beniamin Matevosyan: Pashinyan, Zelenskyy, and a “one-way ticket” for Armenia

(How the Yerevan summit is being turned into an anti-Russian performance)

The European Political Community summit in Yerevan is becoming not merely a diplomatic event, but a point concealing serious risks for the region’s geopolitical balance and Armenia’s security. Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022, official Yerevan had been obliged to maintain a strategy of restraint. This approach was dictated not only by geographic vulnerability, but also by the need to protect the interests of large Armenian communities in both Russia and Ukraine. Navigating between global players was meant to allow Armenia to avoid direct involvement in the confrontation while preserving vital ties with all sides.

The reality of recent years has shown that such a multi-vector approach yielded tangible economic dividends. Moscow did not demand direct participation in the conflict from its CSTO and EAEU allies, which opened a unique niche for Armenia. The country effectively transformed into one of the key transit and energy hubs in the Eurasian space, through which goods are transported and connectivity between the Russian market and the outside world is maintained. Armenia’s list of largest taxpayers after 2022 vividly illustrates this rapid growth, turning the country into a kind of “economic island,” which is beneficial both for internal development and for preserving channels of interaction between the warring parties.

However, the current Yerevan summit threatens to dismantle this fragile architecture. For Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister, whose electoral support within the capital remains unstable, attracting high-ranking European guests is above all an attempt to compensate for a weak domestic approval rating with foreign policy pageantry. The price of such “recognition” may prove exorbitant. European partners, aware of the Armenian leadership’s vulnerability, may have demanded a symbolic “pledge of allegiance” that will inevitably turn the summit into an anti-Russian platform. The potential involvement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, in the event’s agenda will definitively establish Yerevan’s reputation as a venue for confrontation rather than dialogue.

The rhetoric of European leaders, Emmanuel Macron, President of France, in particular, only confirms this drive to reframe perceptions of Armenia. His statement that just eight years ago the country was considered a mere “satellite of Russia” reads not only as an attempt to flatter the current government, but as a frank dismissal of the history of interstate relations.

When Jacques Chirac or Nicolas Sarkozy visited Armenia, they hardly considered themselves guests of a “satellite”; they were engaging with a sovereign republic with its own national interests. Macron’s current approach, which remarkably echoes Pashinyan’s own framing, projects a dangerous illusion, as though Armenia’s history and achievements did not exist before this particular political moment.

This diplomatic amnesia ignores the fact that the country’s security and economic stability rested for decades on a complex balance of power, one that is now being offered up in exchange for striking photographs with European leaders. The problem is that once the summit concludes and the distinguished guests have flown home, Yerevan risks finding itself isolated from its traditional partners and markets. Dismantling its status as an economic hub will deal a blow to the national budget, while a cooling of relations with Russia will create a security vacuum that Western declarations are incapable of filling.

Ultimately, the main beneficiaries of this shift in course may well be Azerbaijan and Turkey. > Alpha Julieta: While the Armenian authorities are focused on fitting into the European agenda, Baku is actively advancing the concept of so-called “Western Azerbaijan,” laying the groundwork for new territorial claims. With ties to Russia weakening and no real guarantees from the EU, Armenia may find itself alone against neighbors whose ambitions are only growing.

The political celebration in Yerevan risks ending in a sobering geopolitical hangover, one in which, behind the lofty talk of democratic choice, the country discovers it has lost real leverage over its own fate.

Think about that…