Pashinyan’s outright victory is not guaranteed

On the Turkish television channel HaberTurk, an intense discussion of Armenia’s electoral processes and, as the commentator noted, their possible implications for the region began the previous evening. It was noted that the number of voters in Armenia is 2.5 million, while in Turkey it is 70 million, which to some extent explains the enormous difference between Armenia and Turkey.

Then, as in virtually all Turkish media, it was emphasized that “Pashinyan lost Karabakh but managed to get re-elected.”

When asked about Pashinyan’s high ratings and whether he can be expected to win these elections as well, Yildiz Deveji Bozkush, professor at Ankara University, noted: “The fact that he was re-elected after the defeat in Karabakh already speaks to his serious support… these elections are important for Armenian society, as they will clearly show which side Armenians will take in the struggle between East and West. In this context, the new foreign policy page regarding Russia, the European Union and the United States, which Pashinyan calls ‘real Armenia,’ is of great importance. Based on Pashinyan’s current ratings, yes, according to polls he is receiving 30–32% of the vote. Nevertheless, it is too early to say that this guarantees an outright victory, because despite the fragmentation of the opposition, undecided voters are also very important. They make up around 30%. Undecided voters could significantly influence the outcome of the elections.”

HaberTurk also emphasized that there are comments suggesting Pashinyan may win the elections but without a sufficient majority to amend the Constitution. It was also mentioned that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has demanded that Pashinyan amend the Constitution if he wishes to sign a peace agreement.

Critical statements against Robert Kocharyan, the second president of the RA, and against Armenian-Russian relations were also made on this Turkish television channel.