Fitch Ratings affirms Armenia’s rating at “BB-“

International rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Armenia’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) at “BB-.”

This means the agency sees the possibility of an upgrade if steady growth is maintained, debt is stabilized, and geopolitical risks decrease. The agency forecasts an increase in Armenia’s international reserves and notes high rates of economic growth and an improved security situation following the intensification of the peace dialogue with Azerbaijan.

However, it also warns of possible risks linked to tensions with Russia, which is Armenia’s main trading partner and supplies more than 80% of its imported gas. “Russia accounts for 35% of Armenia’s goods exports, and it has recently introduced restrictions on the import and transit of Armenian food products, as well as threatened to end preferential trade in energy resources and rough diamonds over Armenia’s plan to join the EU. Since gas covers 61% of energy needs, a halt in supplies or a price increase could negatively affect the macroeconomic, fiscal, and external balances,” the agency’s analysts believe.

According to Fitch’s estimates, Armenia’s economy will grow by 7.1% in 2025, then slow to 5.2% in 2026, remaining significantly above the average for countries with a similar rating. In the long term, the agency expects growth to stabilize at around 5%, which could be achieved through the development of the IT sector, the launch of the Amulsar mine, large-scale infrastructure projects, and the potential opening of the border with Turkey. Fitch also highlights the expansion of a new AI data center project in Armenia, which could attract investment of up to 12% of the country’s GDP.

Among the positive factors, the agency highlights record international reserves, which reached $5.9 billion by the end of May 2026.

At the same time, existing vulnerabilities are noted: the current account deficit widened to 7.2% of GDP in 2025, inflation in 2026 is projected to average 4.4%, and government debt, although it has fallen to 47.2% of GDP, remains sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations and external risks.