When Russia’s hands are free, Aliyev will need to lie low: Alexey Anpilogov

Alexey Anpilogov, political scientist, commented to Alpha News on the anti-Russian statements made by Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, regarding the conflict in Ukraine.

“Aliyev’s recent statements concerning what he calls Russia’s aggression and occupation of Ukrainian territories don’t actually add anything to Azerbaijan’s position, which has already been fairly fully formed over the past four years. The thing is, it’s not even about the statements themselves, Russia will somehow weather the statements. The real issue is that Azerbaijan is helping Ukraine in the most active way possible, in some respects even surpassing its overlord, the Republic of Turkey. Whereas Turkey limits itself to arms supplies, Azerbaijan has de facto hosted production facilities for Ukraine. This was evident, in particular, from leaks that appeared on the internet, production of artillery shells, for example, is now located in Azerbaijan and successfully supplies this type of ammunition to the Ukrainian army. Overall, Azerbaijan’s position is one where it tries, on the one hand, to exploit its proximity to Russia and talk about some kind of defense alliance, while on the other hand, it actually acts both directly against Russia and against Russia’s allies. One can recall, for example, last summer’s Israeli aggression against Iran, when Azerbaijan, as has already been reliably established, provided its airspace for the passage of Israeli aircraft and strikes on northern Iran. So, in general, it seems to me that neither Moscow nor Azerbaijan’s other neighbors have any illusions about this.

Baku’s only bet right now is on its Western ally, the Republic of Turkey. For the Turks, of course, Azerbaijan represents a convenient bridge to the Turkic-speaking world in Central Asia, and they will support Baku in all its geopolitical adventures. But as practice shows, small states in general need to be extremely cautious in their relations with larger neighbors, because they are often simply tolerated, given the geopolitical costs that could result if relations are completely spoiled. But on the other hand, it’s clear that if Baku crosses a certain line in antagonizing its neighbors, and here I mean both Iran and Russia, then its larger neighbors could create simply unbearable conditions for its existence, and no agreements with the Republic of Turkey, no indirect and rather distant support from the United States, which is now talking about some kind of ‘Trump road’ through Armenian territory, will help Azerbaijan,” the political scientist believes.

According to the Alpha News interlocutor, official Baku is taking advantage of a window of geopolitical opportunity that has opened up for it in the current regional situation.

“Right now, Baku is indeed taking advantage of the fact that its neighbors have far more vital, I would say existential, conflicts that they’re involved in. In other words, roughly speaking, Russia doesn’t need a war on two fronts right now, and Baku will be tolerated, however sad that may be, however justified the anger it may provoke in Moscow, and certainly in Yerevan. But, I stress again, until the Ukrainian conflict ends, Russia’s hands are, if not tied, then let’s say occupied to a significant degree. But once its hands are free, it seems to me that at that point Aliyev won’t just need to be careful, he’ll simply need to lie low, keep quiet, in order for Azerbaijan to continue existing as an independent state at all,” the expert concluded.