Escalation around Iran could continue: Kirill Semyonov

Kirill Semyonov, political scientist, commented to Alpha News on the situation around Iran.

According to the expert, escalation around Iran is likely to continue in the near term, though the parties involved are interested in finding at least a temporary solution that would help stabilize the situation in the region.

“It’s still hard to say how the situation will develop. Escalation will probably continue at its current level. Nevertheless, there’s a chance that some kind of solution on the Strait of Hormuz will be found, even if only a temporary one. The situation may be stabilized by November, since it’s very important for Trump to approach the midterm elections with a more stable situation in the Persian Gulf zone,” Semyonov noted.

According to the political scientist, Iran is also not seeking an endless war, but is instead using pressure on the US as a tool to achieve certain goals at the negotiating table.

“Iran isn’t fighting for the sake of war itself. It has a specific goal. It’s putting pressure on the United States to achieve the outcome it wants in negotiations. It’s clear that Iran cannot defeat the US in a direct military confrontation. But it can influence trade processes, the international economy, and use other tools of pressure. Of course, this has its limits. So in the current escalation, Iran’s task is to maximize pressure in order to secure more favorable terms for future negotiations. All of this is being done to reach a final agreement at the negotiating table. Iran is also interested in resolving this problem. The other issue is that this will most likely be a temporary format — some kind of limited truce. What happens after that is still unknown,” Semyonov concluded.