Beniamin Matevosyan: Did Pashinyan again ask Aliyev for time?

(Following the Armenian-Azerbaijani talks in Bishkek)

The diplomatic activity surrounding the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, evident in the high-level contacts in Bishkek, produces a persistent sense of political déjà vu. Analyzing the actions of Nikol Pashinyan, it is impossible to shake the analogy with events from eight years ago. It appears that the leader of the Civil Contract party is once again resorting to his favorite tactic – begging Baku for a temporary pause to deal with domestic problems.

To understand the mechanics of what is happening, a brief historical detour to 2018 and the period that followed is necessary. At that time, having just come to power and preoccupied with neutralizing his opponents, Pashinyan, at a meeting with Ilham Aliyev in Dushanbe, asked for time to resolve domestic issues. This was repeatedly reported by the pro-government Azerbaijani press (though the Aliyev clan has little tolerance for other media). He needed time to consolidate his own position, hold elections, and neutralize the military-political elite of Artsakh, a process symbolized by the proceedings against former president Robert Kocharyan (a figure who is again at the epicenter of political and geopolitical persecution today). During that period, a closed channel of dialogue was established between Yerevan and Baku, with former prime ministerial aide Arsen Kharatyan serving as its key link, acting as a shadow intermediary and emissary. Pashinyan assured the Azerbaijani leadership that once he was firmly established in power, he would “move to constructive dialogue”, that is, meet Baku’s demands. The result was the bloody war of 2020.

Today we are witnessing a similar scenario unfolding. Having failed to secure an unconditional constitutional majority, or even the support of over 50 percent of voters, Pashinyan again finds himself in a vulnerable position. Amid domestic instability and difficulties in Armenian-Russian relations, the talks in Bishkek look like yet another attempt to ask Ilham Aliyev for time to “consolidate power.” Pashinyan’s logic is simple: “let me strengthen my position, and then I will fulfill all your conditions wholesale.” If Aliyev does agree to another pause, he will do so strictly on his own terms and at a very high price.

The Azerbaijani leadership has no intention of abandoning its strategic demands on Armenia, it will merely “lock in a higher interest rate on the political loan.” This is rarely discussed, but the main danger of the current moment lies in the nature of the sitting Armenian government’s legitimacy. Legitimacy built solely on external approval is deadly dangerous for a state. Pashinyan understands that he holds onto his seat not because of popular support (his own team, incidentally, understands this too, and sooner or later the question will arise there of what makes Pashinyan better than, say, Alen Simonyan, and why Pashinyan should be the one in charge if everything rests not on approval but on “leveraging administrative pressure”), but rather because Baku and Ankara are temporarily not resuming large-scale hostilities, and because a figure like Emmanuel Macron in Paris keeps sending congratulatory telegrams. For every such external advance, and for every day of silence from Azerbaijani drones, the Civil Contract leader will have to pay with Armenia’s state interests.

Baku’s list of demands has long ceased to be a secret. Yerevan is being asked to fundamentally restructure the very framework of the state. This includes a radical overhaul of Armenia’s Constitution to bring it in line with Azerbaijani content, the surrender of the so-called enclaves, and delimitation based on Azerbaijani maps that would leave Armenian communications completely unprotected. In essence, a configuration is being formed that would allow Armenia to be placed under total blockade at any moment, following the Karabakh scenario.

Alongside this, Baku is persistently demanding the closure of the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant and, de facto, the country’s full integration into Azerbaijan’s energy grid, which would mean the final loss of energy and national sovereignty.

History is repeating itself, but with each new cycle, the price of error grows higher. Pashinyan’s attempt to once again buy himself political time at the expense of national concessions will not stave off Baku’s pressure, it will only make the ultimate dismantling of Armenian statehood a matter of time.

Think about it…