Beniamin Matevosyan: Pashinyan’s plan for the talks with Putin has failed

(It is unacceptable for Armenia and Russia to have this level of relations)

The meeting between Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, and Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s prime minister, held in Bishkek, clearly demonstrated the complete failure of all the Armenian side’s calculations. Stripping away the diplomatic veneer, it becomes obvious: of everything he wanted, Pashinyan received only the fact of the invitation to Moscow itself. However, the illusion of legitimization through the visit alone is an extremely dangerous misconception. People are called to the Russian capital not only for photo ops, but also to sign a capitulation, Volodymyr Zelensky can confirm that.

Ahead of the talks, Yerevan tried to raise the stakes through a series of political provocations, pointed statements about potentially charging Russia $2 billion in rent, the demonstrative arrest of Robert Kocharyan, and so on, but the Kremlin had already seized the initiative. In response to Pashinyan’s ostentatious moves, Putin firmly signaled Moscow’s readiness to swiftly withdraw its 102nd military base from Armenia. “If Armenia believes it doesn’t need the Russian base [in Gyumri — ed.], we will leave as early as tomorrow. But is Armenia ready for that? Do as you please, we won’t impose anything on anyone,” the Russian president said.

At the same time, Russia made not a single concession: the sanctions restrictions were not lifted, the strategic concession over the Armenian railway remained untouched, the firm demand to hold a referendum on choosing between the EAEU and the EU was not withdrawn, and moreover, the question of annulling the law on beginning EU accession was publicly legitimized. It’s time for Armenian business, ordinary citizens and politicians to soberly assess the scale of what is happening and seriously consider their own security, since the country is losing its fundamental guarantees step by step.

Any attempt by the Armenian prime minister to mask the catastrophe with his usual populism is doomed to fail. Forestalling a reaction from the state apparatus or his own faction (he knows better than anyone the price and degree of principle held by the people around him, who operate on the principle that “betraying in time isn’t betrayal, it’s foresight”), Pashinyan declared, even before returning to Armenia, that the talks with Vladimir Putin had gone “very well,” and also announced an upcoming visit to Moscow. Even if Pashinyan had stepped straight off the plane and gone live again to recite the poetry of Lermontov or Mayakovsky, it wouldn’t change the main facts. Putin pointedly did not congratulate him on his “election victory,” making it clear that the question of the Armenian leader’s legitimacy remains open for the Kremlin.

Behind closed doors, the pressure on Yerevan only increased. There is no reason to doubt Yuri Ushakov, aide to the Russian president, who had announced in advance that the topic of political and geopolitical prisoners in Armenia would be discussed. It’s obvious this topic was raised in the most ultimatum-like terms. Moscow is no longer turning a blind eye to Yerevan’s internal repression of forces and figures who support proper, mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia, making clear that this kind of geopolitical blackmail is doomed to fail.

The degradation of bilateral dialogue to this level creates a direct threat to the security of both countries. For Armenia, a break with Moscow would mean the loss of its only real shield in an unstable region and chaos in its economy.

For Russia, it would mean the destruction of the historic security architecture in the South Caucasus. This kind of crisis in relations is unacceptable, and if the Armenian elite fails to draw conclusions from the current failure, statehood itself will be the price paid.

Think about it…