United States will never go against Azerbaijan: Americanist on US-Armenia cooperation 

Political scientist, director of the Center for Political Research in the United States Mikhail Tilman commented to Alpha News on the prospects for cooperation between Armenia and the United States.

According to the expert, the United States wants to cooperate with Armenia simply because its strategic goal is to defeat Russia.

“When talking about cooperation between Armenia and the United States, you need to understand that desire is one thing and capability is another. The United States certainly has a desire to work with Armenia, but the problem is its capabilities. The US wants to cooperate because its strategic goal is to defeat Russia, and it is very convenient to do so through the Caucasus, especially considering that Russia is already in conflict with Ukraine. Additional tension on Russia’s southern borders is certainly an advantage from an American point of view. If we take the southern borders, these are Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan, of course, is not suitable; it is Turkey’s backyard, and therefore, without permission, without giving the Turks something in return, the United States will not be able to use this.

Georgia is in a difficult situation and, for a number of reasons, cannot afford to further spoil relations with Russia; they are already not brilliant, even though there are no diplomatic relations there. So, the only option left is to enter through Armenia. Yerevan is very attractive for the US, especially considering that there is a fairly large Armenian diaspora. Whether the United States has the capabilities or not is another question,” Tilman noted.

According to the political scientist, all the attempts by the United States to cooperate with other countries ended with the United States turning around and leaving.

“The resources of the United States are spread thinly all over the world. There is already a Russian-Ukrainian conflict, a Middle Eastern conflict, as well as internal problems of the United States. So, the Americans’ capabilities to help Armenia are much more limited than they would like and, I’m afraid, much less than the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, would like. Pashinyan’s statements are more illusions than hopes. If we look at the history of the American presence in different parts of the world, we know very well how it ended. Take Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s. Almost all attempts by the United States in one way or another to closely cooperate with some governments and support them ended with the changes in the United States. For one reason or another, it was turning around and leaving,” Tilman said.

According to Tilman, it is necessary to understand that the United States will never go against Azerbaijan.

“Firstly, Azerbaijan and the United States have good relations. Secondly, there is the enormous influence of Turkey, which is also a NATO ally. Thirdly, Azerbaijan is a major oil exporter, and this adds weight to it on the world stage. If Pashinyan expects that the United States will now deal with the Azerbaijanis and help Armenia, then this is simply something from the realm of fantasy. This is a completely unrealistic assumption. A person lives in a world of illusions,” the political scientist emphasized.

“What matters is that you need to remember a simple thing: Americans have no experience whatsoever in how to participate in the political life of the Caucasus. This is a very old and complex region. I always recommend to my Armenian friends not to forget that the US is far away while Russia is close,” Tilman concluded.