Aslan Rubaev: Would Aliyev have been able to win the presidential election without winning the war?

Speaking with Alpha News, Eurasian studies expert Aslan Rubaev commented on the election in Azerbaijan and said that thanks to the victory in the war, Aliyev became a hero for the domestic audience and returned, as they see it, Karabakh.

“Would Aliyev have been able to win the presidential election without the war? He would have been able to rig the result, but he would have avoided the situation that Lukashenko faced in August 2020, when there was turmoil in Belarus after the election. Today Aliyev is a hero for the domestic audience; he got, as they see it, Karabakh back, having achieved a certain unity in the country. If this had not happened, the West would have paid attention to the election and would have begun to destabilize the situation in Azerbaijan.

Actually, Azerbaijan has a rather difficult situation with inflation and a difficult economic situation. This can be seen by the outflow of the population. When you look at the official statistics of Azerbaijan or international data on the oil sector, you realize that this means nothing. Because even the average standard of living is lower than in both Armenia and Georgia. Aliyev has been building an attractive image of Azerbaijan for a long time; he wanted to take the country forward, but I must say, Azerbaijan is very seriously dependent on Israel. I believe that if Britain and the United States today needed to get the situation out of control, they would have very easily unsettled Azerbaijan,” Rubaev noted.

Commenting on the integration of Azerbaijan with Turkey, the expert noted that many Azerbaijanis perceive the process positively, despite the fact that in Turkey, Azerbaijanis have always been considered second-class citizens.

“I have many Azerbaijani friends and fellow experts who want this unification. And when I say that you will exchange the sovereignty of your country if you give it into the hands of Ankara, that is, you will lose independence, they answer that it is not like that. They say that the Turks will simply protect them, and they will be fraternal peoples—you know, two states, one nation. I said that as long as you are Azerbaijan, that is, a multi-vector country that has equal relations with Russia and the West, you are an attractive country for Turkey. But Turkey can stir up the situation in the South Caucasus until you become an integral part of it. What will be the attitude towards the Azerbaijani ethnicity after full integration?” the expert said.