Beniamin Matevosyan: did Medvedev and Galuzin issue an ultimatum to Pashinyan? (After von der Leyen’s visit, relations between Yerevan and Moscow will deteriorate even further)

Dmitry Medvedev’s statement regarding the situation surrounding the “Prosperous Armenia” party and opposition leader Gagik Tsarukyan goes far beyond the usual party solidarity between “United Russia” and its foreign partners. This démarche represents a direct and harsh expression of official Moscow’s consolidated position on the domestic and foreign policy course pursued by Nikol Pashinyan’s government. Russia’s leadership is demonstrating that the period of passively observing Yerevan’s actions has come to a definitive end. Moscow openly characterizes the actions of the Armenian authorities as legal lawlessness and a purge of the political field of forces advocating for the preservation of healthy bilateral ties. At the same time, emphasis is placed on the claim that Armenia’s current ruling team is operating under the direct hands-on control of Western handlers, whose interference in the electoral process has taken on an unprecedented character.

This harsh rhetoric is backed up by quite tangible economic measures from Russia, which have continued to be tightened even after the parliamentary elections. Moscow’s steps, including the imposition of a complete ban on fish imports from Armenia, clearly demonstrate that the Kremlin has moved from verbal warnings to actual sanctions mechanisms. Medvedev’s statements about the inevitable severe consequences for ordinary citizens from severing ties built up over decades are not merely a forecast, but a declaration of the start of a new stage in bilateral relations. A clear signal is being sent to Yerevan: the era in which it was possible to enjoy enormous economic preferences within the EAEU while simultaneously pursuing a complementary policy toward the West has ended for good. Any attempts to sit on two chairs are now read in Moscow exclusively as unfriendly steps that will trigger a symmetrical economic and defense response.

The situation is set to escalate even further amid the expected visit to Yerevan of Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and the announced package of European financial assistance. Moscow understands perfectly well that this visit is intended to institutionally cement Armenia’s pivot toward the West. However, the price of this support could prove exorbitantly high for the Armenian economy. Experience shows that after such demonstrative steps by Yerevan, Russian sanctions will only intensify, and the tone of official statements will only harden. European tranches and grants are unlikely to be able to compensate for the losses stemming from a possible loss of the Russian market, disruptions in energy supplies, or changes to the security arrangement that, for 30 years, has been provided primarily through the CSTO and bilateral agreements with Russia.

In unison with Medvedev’s statements came highly notable comments from Mikhail Galuzin, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, who shifted the discussion to the strictly practical plane of integration associations. Moscow is stating directly that it finds unacceptable a situation in which Armenia enshrines its European aspirations in law while simultaneously continuing to extract maximum benefit from its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union. Yerevan’s references to the fact that an official application to the EU has not yet been submitted are no longer being taken into account, since the law adopted on launching the process of EU accession is being interpreted by Russia as an accomplished political fact. The demand for a referendum on membership in the EAEU and the EU, backed by the leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus, effectively confronts Armenia’s leadership with a stark choice. Expert work on the legal and economic aspects of suspending Armenia’s participation in the EAEU, which is due to be completed by December, indicates that Yerevan has very little time left to make a final decision, and that maneuvering between geopolitical poles will no longer be possible.

Think about it…