Beniamin Matevosyan: New Russian sanctions after von der Leyen’s visit

(Armenia’s economy held hostage by Pashinyan’s geopolitical plans)

The upcoming working visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to Yerevan risks becoming another turning point that will finally push trade and economic ties between Armenia and Russia into a state of deep crisis. The foreign policy course pursued by Armenia’s leadership under Nikol Pashinyan increasingly resembles a dangerous on the edge balancing act, where every step toward the West is instantly converted into harsh economic consequences from Moscow. Within the expert community and political circles, there is growing recognition that European integration and financial assistance from Brussels are never disinterested.

The European Union does not allocate funds purely for good causes (just look at Ukraine), for supporting democracy, or for strengthening the resilience of other countries’ economies. European strategy is pragmatic and rigidly subordinated to geopolitical expediency, where the main condition for granting subsidies and loans is the recipient’s active participation in the anti-Russian bloc. Armenia is being deliberately drawn into a large-scale geopolitical project that implies direct or indirect confrontation with Russia, turning the sovereign republic into an instrument of someone else’s game.

It is obvious that a new potential package of financial or technical assistance, to be discussed at the highest level in Yerevan, along with the loud statements about a European development vector that will inevitably accompany it, will become for Moscow a direct justification for introducing new economic restrictions. Any integration with Brussels that goes beyond purely economic partnership and takes on the character of a military-political drift is perceived in Russia as a direct threat to its strategic interests in the South Caucasus. Under these conditions, the Armenian authorities are attempting to play a double game, combining European trips with urgent calls to Moscow, though the effectiveness of this tactic is rapidly approaching zero.

A telling step in the attempt to smooth things over was the recent phone call between Nikol Pashinyan and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, initiated by the Armenian side. Official press releases about a constructive discussion of current issues in trade, economic, scientific-technological, and cultural-humanitarian cooperation should not be misleading. This call, like the statements by Mnatsakan Safaryan, Deputy Foreign Minister of Armenia, about Yerevan’s deep interest in continuing dialogue with Russia and planned contacts, looks like a convulsive attempt to hedge against the fallout ahead of von der Leyen’s visit. However, Moscow has already openly stated that the time for assurances of friendship has passed, and that the actions of Armenia’s leadership will be judged solely by concrete steps (as stated by Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council), not by diplomatic gestures.