Factors that ensured economic growth are no longer effective – Alpha Economics

The statistics of macroeconomic indicators demonstrate a continuous decrease in economic growth. Cumulative growth of the economic activity index in January-August was 9%, and in August of this year, it was 5.6% compared to the same period last year.

By examining the economic activity index in January-August, we can see the directions that contributed the most to its formation. In particular, foreign trade turnover, construction, and trade continue to provide high growth. Meanwhile, slow growth is observed here too in comparison with the previous periods.

The reason for the slowdown in growth lies in the reduction of external factors, which used to contribute to high growth. For example, weakening of foreign trade turnover, reduction of exports from Armenia to Russia (22.4%), reduction of private money transfers (48.3%), reduction of the number of tourists (6.1%), etc.

If these trends continue, the government’s 7-percent economic growth target set by the 2024 budget will be called into question.