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Turkey demands that Pashinyan hand over everything without security guarantees both for himself and especially for Armenia

July 09 2024, 13:30

Personal safety. This is a matter that worries any politician who has achieved high political status. This problem becomes even more acute for those figures who “gambled with the state.” In the case of Armenia, we not only have the fact of a “gambling game” as a result of which the Armenian Artsakh fell, but also have a situation in which, apparently, a “new gambling game” awaits us.
What is it about?

The Armenian experts are becoming more and more aware that the strategic goal of the “2018 revolution” was to reshape the political map of the region: the total withdrawal of Russia from the region and the transfer of control over all sections of the Armenian-Iranian border (controlled by both Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic) to Western allies. In our region, an ally of the West and the operator of NATO is Turkey, and accordingly, it should get control of the entire perimeter of the border.

The first part of the plan has been completed.

There is no Artsakh, no Russian troops in Artsakh; it remains to pull the same trick with Armenia. But what is necessary for this?

It is necessary to amend the Constitution, giving Armenia the status of a non-aligned state (which implies the country’s withdrawal from the CSTO and the withdrawal of Russian border troops) and the rupture of contractual relations with Russia (primarily the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia). After that, the security dome over Armenia will be completely destroyed, which will open up opportunities for the destruction of Armenia’s common land border with Iran.

In the context of safety, Pashinyan is more concerned about what will happen AFTER these events. And after that, Azerbaijan will not only refuse to sign a peace treaty again but may also try to take advantage of the destruction of the security dome that has ensured Armenia’s territorial integrity for decades and will also try to destroy the common land border between Armenia and Iran.

It is clear that the United States (with whom Pashinyan wants to sign a paper on upgrading relations to the level of strategic partnership, possibly in 2024) will not help in this case, and Russia and Iran (based on their interests) may still try to preserve this very common border between Armenia and Iran (read the joint statement by Moscow and Tehran dated June 16, 2024). That’s where the question that worries Pashinyan arises: what happens if he goes all-in and loses?! This is the case where security guarantees are needed.

Nikol Pashinyan wants to receive security guarantees in this case. In the opposite case, he is trying to convince the West that he can return to a strategic partnership with Russia. This is the reason for Nikol Pashinyan’s recent steps, which some have dubbed “pro-Russian”: the trips of the Armenian Ambassador to Belgorod and Kursk, Pashinyan’s statement about the inexpediency of a referendum on Armenia’s accession to the EU, and so on.

Pashinyan is bargaining with Western countries. Moreover, he does this in a situation where it is difficult to say whether Moscow is ready to “take him back”, as well as in a situation where Turkey gives clear messages that the West not only cannot give any guarantees of Armenia’s security but also does not have the right to do so. This was precisely the recent statement by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who stressed that Turkey is dissatisfied with the position of Western countries in the Armenian-Azerbaijani process.

Pashinyan is not afraid of the referendum. He knows that regardless of the actual results of the vote, they will count them as they want to (like in 2021). He knows that even if someone starts eating people at polling stations on the day of the referendum, the West will say that “they ate Kremlin agents, so it’s okay.” He wants guarantees. Cast-iron guarantees.

Whether there will be any guarantees or not, time will tell. The only important thing is that in such circumstances, Armenia will face only turmoil in the near future…

Think about it…