What will Azerbaijan demand in return for gas supplies to Armenia?

On April 5, Nikol Pashinyan, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will hold a meeting in Brussels that will de jure mark a total change in Armenia’s geopolitical vector, with all that this entails—a catastrophe equal to what happened in Artsakh.

On April 4, during the parliamentary hearing on the new prospects and challenges of Armenia’s European integration, it was mentioned that Russia and Iran may negatively perceive the course chosen by Armenia and that because of the chosen path of alleged “Euro-integration”—in reality, the dissolution of Armenian statehood in the Turkic world—the price for gas, which Armenia buys mostly from Russia, may increase.

Let’s leave aside that these statements clearly indicate that the Armenian authorities are well aware of the consequences of their geopolitical adventure, and let’s focus on what was previously said about official Yerevan’s “ability” to compensate for the loss of Russian gas with Iranian gas.

Armenia buys 2.4 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia annually. According to the 2022 agreements, Iran will increase gas supplies to Armenia, which until 2030 should reach 1.7 billion cubic meters. No one will tell you where we will get the missing amount of gas or what we will do before 2030. In other words, it will not be possible to compensate for the loss of Russian gas with Iranian gas.

By the way, there is another important political nuance in this situation. Nikol Pashinyan and his propaganda machine are trying to present everything that happened before 2018, and especially the period from 1998 to 2008, in a frankly negative light. But note that it is based on the infrastructure built during the presidency of Robert Kocharyan that the authorities want to solve a number of problems. It was during Kocharyan’s presidency that, despite the threats of the United States and the fact that Iran was under sanctions, the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline was built. So we need to sincerely say that Armenia has had years of prosperity in the past, and it has had such infrastructure projects that the current authorities could not even dream of.

The second nuance is that the authorities understand that Iran does not approve of Armenia’s geopolitical choice, which means that the former may refuse to sell gas to the latter. Moreover, if Pashinyan completes the “John Bolton plan” and Armenia loses its common border with Iran, we will not be able to buy Iranian gas.

What will the Armenian authorities do then? Will they offer citizens to heat their apartments with banknotes in the winter? No, they are already saying that they consider buying gas from Azerbaijan. This was announced on October 27, 2023, by Deputy Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure Hakob Vardanyan.

Let’s even leave aside the fact that the government, which has failed to build 13 houses in Shurnukh in 3 years, will not be able to ensure the construction of an alternative gas pipeline to purchase gas from Baku and note that it is obvious that if Azerbaijan agrees, not only the price will be higher than the current price of Russian gas, but also the Aliyev regime may make political demands in exchange for gas. For example, the resettlement of 500 thousand Azerbaijanis to Yerevan.

It is precisely this geopolitical and historical scheme that the authorities are dragging Armenian people and the Armenian state to. This is done for one simple reason: if Armenia continues to remain in the current system of “allied coordinates”, if it continues to remain in a system within which the surrender of Artsakh, Tavush, Syunik, and Ararat, the rejection of national identity, and state symbols continue to be criminally punishable acts, this will pose a threat to a specific group of people who govern Armenia today.

They need to integrate the country into a system where not only will they not be held accountable, but they may also receive the Nobel Prize as well as the “Supreme Order of the Turkic World”.

Think about it…