Will Russia respond to Pashinyan with its own “political experiment”?

Armenia has sent an official letter to Russia about its intention to terminate the activity of Russian border guards at Zvartnots International Airport. The Secretary of the Armenian Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, told reporters on Wednesday.

In light of Grigoryan’s statement, it can be assumed that the phone conversation between the Russian and Armenian foreign ministers, which took place last week on the initiative of the Russian side, intended to clarify in more detail the position of official Yerevan regarding the withdrawal of Russian border guards from the territory of Zvartnots, one of the important transport hubs of the EAEU in the South Caucasus.

Grigoryan’s statement also confirms that the Armenian authorities are steadfast in their intention to conduct another experiment on Armenia and its population, an experiment in which the newspaper owned by Nikol Pashinyan’s family is already warning citizens about the expected economic difficulties.

Firstly, it is obvious that the difficulties will be not only economic but also existential, since a complete breach of Armenian-Russian relations is what Turkey and Azerbaijan should get before potential attempts to occupy Armenia. Secondly, based on the information published in the family newspaper, which has become the mouthpiece of the current government, it becomes clear that the authorities are well aware of what they are pushing the country into and what consequences the Armenian people may face. This is an important detail in light of the developments that may occur in the future, and then no one will be able to say that they did not realize the scale of the threats that official Baku and Ankara will force the Armenian people to face amid the breach of strategic partnership relations with Russia.

But there is another noteworthy detail here: if, as in the case of the Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh, Russia refuses to withdraw its border guards from Zvartnots, if Russia responds to the Pashinyan experiment with its own experiment, then what? Has someone in power thought through this scenario? After all, even after the Armenians’ exodus from Karabakh, the authorities failed to achieve the withdrawal of peacekeepers. Who said that the scenario could not be repeated with regard to the border guards in Zvartnots, especially given the above-mentioned importance of this transport hub for the EAEU?

There is yet another key element in the situation. As you have noticed, recently Nikol Pashinyan’s subordinates Alen Simonyan and Armen Grigoryan, who, according to “rumors floating in the air,” may be considered by various Western circles as Pashinyan’s successors, have been making anti-Russian statements. Given the specifics of relations in power groups in countries like Armenia, it can be assumed that we are witnessing a public audition for Pashinyan’s position, where various officials are trying to prove that they can be “greater Nicols than Pashinyan himself”.

This not only shows a split in power and the fact that the ruling party itself is not sure that Pashinyan will complete the announced plans (quitting the CSTO, withdrawal of 102 military bases and border guards), and therefore is trying to audition for the role of “Pashinyan 2.0”, but also proves that the power pyramid is not as monolithic as they are trying to convince us.

Think about it…