Putin is sending Armenia a serious warning signal: Vasily Koltashov

Vasily Koltashov, political scientist, commented to Alpha News on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement about the possibility of holding a referendum in Armenia on the country’s foreign policy choice between the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union.

“Vladimir Putin’s statement that a civilized divorce with Armenia is already possible and apparently necessary, if that is what Armenia wants, also includes a proposal for the Armenian people to decide in a referendum whether they are for the European Union or for the Eurasian Union. But this is not Putin’s first warning, because there were many cautious, careful, and dignity-conscious remarks directed at Nikol Pashinyan, until at their last meeting Vladimir Putin made clear to him that Armenia needs to decide where it is heading,” Koltashov said.

According to the expert, Armenia receives political promises from the EU, while Russian and Eurasian markets provide the country with real economic opportunities.

“The referendum proposal is very convenient for Pashinyan, because no referendum actually needs to be held. He has no need for any referendum. Armenia gets promises from the EU and real opportunities from the Russian market. On top of that, the Eurasian market continues to function for Armenia. So removing Armenia from it would only be possible if Russia made the corresponding decision regarding Armenian goods and Armenian companies registered in the country. Pashinyan himself has no use for a referendum. On the contrary, it suits him that things are playing out exactly this way. Russia is literally subsidizing Armenia’s economy, while the EU is fueling the political excitement of Pashinyan’s supporters: “Oh, we’ll be in Europe soon,'” Koltashov noted.

In the political scientist’s view, the absence of a referendum could lead to harsher action from Moscow.

“Putin is already sending quite a strong warning signal with this proposal. And that strong warning signal means that at some point, if no referendum follows, if the referendum initiative is put forward but rejected by the authorities, Russia will conclude that the authorities are afraid of a referendum and act accordingly. Ultimately, this will lead to Armenia being hit by developments that Russia will simply bring about through political decisions. This concerns the economy above all. But for now, this is yet another warning from Putin, which Pashinyan will ignore just as he has ignored other proposals that were, it must be said, far less explicit,” Vasily Koltashov concluded.