Trump’s election will lead to increased escalation in Middle East — Semyon Bagdasarov

Speaking with Alpha News, Semyon Bagdasarov, Director of the Russian Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia, has commented on how Donald Trump’s return to the White House will affect US foreign policy as well as the summit of the Turkic states and the policy of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

“Let me remind you that it was Trump who, when he became president of the United States, crossed out the agreements with Iran on the nuclear program. Among other things, let me remind you that under Trump, the US embassy was moved to Jerusalem. Under Trump, the Golan Heights were recognized as Israeli territory. He is a fiercely anti-Iranian and pro-Israeli person, so we must expect a serious escalation. His support for Israel will be guaranteed, and this will finally untie the hands of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and give him the opportunity to launch attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities or at least on oil fields, which he dreams of. Therefore, the escalation of the conflict will be obvious and very, very serious,” Bagdasarov says.

The expert believes that for Trump, as well as for the United States in general, Israel is much more important than Ukraine.

“If in Ukraine, for example, he seeks to freeze the conflict on some conditions, in the Middle East he will definitely strengthen his assistance to Israel. To date, some figures say that up to 70% of all ammunition and everything that Israel spends on fighting comes from the United States,” Bagdasarov says.

Speaking about the summit of the Turkic states held in Bishkek, the expert notes that this will not necessarily be a powerful integration system.

“First of all, I hope that in the near future, at the next presidential election, Turkish President Erdogan will leave. Secondly, I believe the same Central Asian states are not very happy with the fact that Turkey dominates this Turkic union. I would not say this will be a powerful integration system. Many countries, including Central Asian ones, will try to work with Russia, China, and Turkey where it is profitable,” Bagdasarov says.

Commenting on what awaits the South Caucasus after the US elections, the expert says that everything depends on the situation in the Middle East.

“If a big war with Iran really breaks out in the Middle East, the value of the Zangezur Corridor will increase dramatically, and many interested countries will push the Armenian leadership to open it. And the Armenian leadership should be ready for this. It should develop its own vision to understand what to do to ensure that Armenia retains its sovereignty in this territory over the Syunik region,” Bagdasarov notes.

According to the expert, the Armenian authorities are not dealing with security issues, and thus Pashinyan is letting his people down.

“No one believes that if a war starts tomorrow, France or the United States will send their troops to protect Armenia. Only a great cyclist riding streets surrounded by guards can believe in this. Pashinyan is setting up his people; he is setting up his republic. The authorities need to deal with these issues, but I do not see that they are doing it, and that’s scary. So, when the Armenian authorities say, We want to go West, suit yourselves, but who is going to help you there? The second issue is economic feasibility. If we imagine for a second that Russia has closed its market to Armenia, it will be a disaster. Therefore, when the Armenian leadership makes some anti-Russian and pro-Western statements, it should just think about where it is pushing its country, where it is pushing people,” Bagdasarov concludes.