Without external factors, economy will face serious problems

The Statistical Committee has published preliminary data on GDP growth, according to which the economic growth in the third quarter was 5.2%. That’s lower than the previous quarters of this year and lower than the 7.4 percent increase in the third quarter of 2023.

The downward trend of GDP growth is also noticeable for the three quarters in 2023. However, if last year it was mainly due to the base effect of 2022, in the case of 2024 the reason is mainly the absence of the growth-supporting external factors. As a result, the economic growth returns to the real potential, but there is a larger problem in the real sector of the economy: downward trends in directions that ensure long-term growth.

It is obvious that the growths have been secured in the spheres that have external effects, and the directions of such important areas as agriculture and mining have negative indicators. To summarize the situation, the economy is losing positive external influences, remaining face to face with the problematic situation of the real sector.

By the way, both the existence of external factors and the probability of problems if they are gone are highlighted by the international institutions as well. For example, the World Bank’s monthly economic review on Armenia.

The World Bank claims that, without the re-export factor, exports from Armenia have not increased.