Likelihood of regime change in Iran this year is very high – Semyon Bagdasarov

Speaking with Alpha News, Semyon Bagdasarov, Director of the Center for Middle East and Central Asian Studies, commented on the protests in Iran and the prospect of a change of power in Tehran, the possibility of further US and Israeli strikes on Iranian territory, and the threat posed to the South Caucasus and Russia by Iran’s destabilization.

“The situation in Iran is extremely difficult. I’ve said many times that 2026 will be a difficult year for Iran, but this is actually where the New Year began. Iran’s problem isn’t just economic. There are many other issues: environmental issues, a power struggle at the top of the hierarchy. The system itself, it seems, has already exhausted itself. Therefore, I wouldn’t reduce this, as is sometimes done, to the machinations of the US and Israel. Although, of course, the US and Israel have an interest in these events, which is probably as it should be, because Iran is seen as an adversary of Israel and the United States,” the expert noted.

According to Baghdasarov, the likelihood of regime change in Iran is very high, but people will not protest simply because they are being incited by Israeli intelligence services.

“Will the government hold on? I believe the likelihood of regime change this year is very high, let’s put it that way. It is not guaranteed to happen now, but if not this time, then later—the situation is long overdue. You see, when such a huge number of people come out, it already says a lot: people are tired of the problems that exist, and they don’t see solutions. People won’t protest just because the Israeli security services are inciting them. They are succeeding because there are serious, deep-seated causes for this crisis. That’s why it is difficult to stop,” Bagdasarov said.

According to him, there is a threat that current events in Iran could escalate into civil war and the country’s decentralization. He also stated that Turkey and Azerbaijan could take advantage of the situation and encourage separatism in Azerbaijani-populated regions of Iran.