United States is confident that now is right time to strike Iran – Oleg Blokhin

Speaking with Alpha News, military expert Oleg Blokhin commented on the situation surrounding Iran.

“The United States is convinced that the ayatollahs’ regime is currently in its weakest and most vulnerable state, and that now is the right time to act. But why weak? Why vulnerable? Precisely because of the protests. Americans believe that the protests have significantly undermined and weakened the regime. Israelis, however, are not as optimistic. First of all, they are not fully prepared, since another problem has arisen right next door—Hezbollah, with whom they are currently in direct confrontation. In addition, the situation in Syria remains unclear: they see how the Turks are strengthening Julani’s regime, they understand his attitude toward them, and they realize that this direction will be a priority. Moreover, the Israelis themselves are already quite exhausted from the prolonged operation in Gaza, which they generally support but which has dragged on too long. They also vividly remember the twelve-day war and the exchange of strikes, and they have a clear idea of what awaits them if new attacks begin—because the response will hit them directly, not the Americans,” Blokhin said.

According to the expert, the Americans are determined, and the likelihood of an operation is quite high.

“The Americans have deployed significant forces and continue to push this agenda. Given how skilled they are at this, and how persuasive Trump can be, I still consider the probability of an operation to be high. However, the Israelis may prioritize their own interests and the problems that could arise if strikes begin over Trump’s ‘wishes,’ and postpone the operation until a more favorable time. They are less optimistic about the prospects of a ground operation and apparently have information suggesting that the ayatollahs’ regime is not as weakened by the protests as the US believes, and that a possible ground offensive would not be as brilliantly successful. Furthermore, both the Americans and the Israelis are waiting not only for evidence of the weakening of the IRGC, but—more importantly—for signs of a possible split within its ruling structures. This is the key factor for them. If it is confirmed that a split has begun, they will most likely launch the operation, possibly even a ground one. And this split may well be connected to all the recent events,” Blokhin concluded.