We are witnessing beginning of major war in Middle East – Vasily Koltashov

Speaking with Alpha News, political scientist Vasily Koltashov commented on the development of the situation in the Middle East, assessing potential military, economic, and geopolitical consequences. According to the expert, given current developments, tensions could also rise in the South Caucasus.

“I believe we are witnessing the beginning of a major war. And the markets right now—as I emphasize as an economist—do not understand how deep this situation may go. We are talking about mutual strikes and the likelihood of a ground front emerging. Oil and gas prices may rise sharply. Production and transportation from the Persian Gulf region could be seriously disrupted due to military actions. The United States has exposed its allies, and now Iran is striking both American bases and US allies. As far as I understand, only Oman remains untouched, possibly as a negotiation platform. But frankly, it is not very clear how negotiations can even take place now after the US carried out such a treacherous attack and allowed so many killings. In this situation, one must be ready for tensions to rise in the South Caucasus as well. Overall, the conflict will be very intense and, most likely, prolonged. This is not a short-term story, as many still believe,” the expert said.

According to the political scientist, Trump expected a completely different scenario—he thought Iran would collapse and the US sphere of influence would expand.

“Trump is trying to intimidate Iran. He expected a completely different scenario. He was convinced that if the Iranian leadership were decapitated, the masses would take to the streets, demand the overthrow of the government, and welcome American hegemony or ‘democracy.’ It was assumed that Iran would collapse, and the US sphere of influence would expand. They expected to gain not only Venezuelan oil but also, as Trump himself says, to ‘liberate’ Iran’s oil—in other words, to take control of it. And supposedly the Iranian people were meant to rejoice at this. But nothing of the sort happened. Iranian society is mobilizing in response to American aggression, perceiving the US and Israel as enemies. If Iran cannot be intimidated by the threat of a ground operation, the US will indeed have to start one. And that is an extremely difficult task. Trump can make any statements he wants, but so far the situation is not playing out in favor of the United States. In fact, they have already lost the first stage: the outcome was not as planned, and anti-American sentiment in the region has intensified,” Koltashov concluded.